Regression resumption for Roma
AC Milan take on Roma at San Siro on Sunday evening in aiming to put the pressure on Napoli at the top of Serie A.
Jose Mourinho’s men have underwhelmed a touch this season in struggling to build on their Europa Conference League triumph last term.
Milan’s title defence is going fairly well, it is just that Gli Azzurri have been exceptional, winning 13 and drawing two of their opening 15 league games.
It is high time Serie A returned, being one of the most exciting European divisions to follow in recent seasons, and Milan v Roma is a headline match-up to kickstart the resumption.
Alessandro Florenzi, Ante Rebic, Divock Origi, Fode Ballo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are ruled out for the hosts, while Mike Maignan is doubtful.
Andrea Belotti and Ebrima Darboe are sidelined for the Yellow and Reds, who may benefit from some time on the training ground.
Expected goals (xG) process wise, Roma have been excellent this season, and though they are seventh in the table they are well in touch with the pack trailing Napoli.
Milan are up with them in the attacking third, creating chances equating to 1.87 xGF per game, while Roma are at 1.88, but Milan have scored 29 goals from 15 games where Mourinho’s side have only notched 18.
Roma’s defensive process is outstanding, allowing just 0.7 xGA per game, while Milan are at 1.04, but the hosts have only conceded one more than the Yellow and Reds at this stage.
15 games into the season, when there are such discrepancies between the xG and real goals, you have to start looking for other reasons other than poor finishing and goalkeeping.
Roma should improve if they continue limiting the opposition in the way that they are, but the lack of goals is very concerning as far as their top four push is concerned.
The time since the last round of fixtures may see this one play out in a more evenly matched fashion, and I am content leaning on an impressive defensive away performance from Mourinho’s travellers.
Milan have scored in eight of ten.
Milan have conceded in six of ten.
Milan have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
Roma have scored in eight of ten.
Roma have conceded in nine of ten.
Roma have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
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