Wolves go to fragile Werder in push for top six
Werder Bremen’s horrendous home record will be under the microscope once again this Sunday, they welcome the visit of Wolfsburg off the back of their crushing 3-0 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday evening. With Fortuna Dusseldorf and Mainz in action on Saturday, Florian Kohfeldt’s men are likely to have the chance to leap from the bottom two, dependent on the other two’s results. Bremen fell to three second half goals in midweek, as their defensive frailties were glaring with substitute defender Stefan Ilsanker netting a brace in the closing exchanging, both from set pieces.
Recent form
Both sides were defeated by Eintracht in their last match, a late Daichi Kamada strike sunk Wolfsburg last Saturday, as the race for the sixth place Europa League spot became a lot closer. Hoffenheim are now joint with the visitors on 42 points, behind on goal difference with a favourable away trip to Fortuna giving them the chance to sneak into sixth before this match takes place. Expected goals is on the side of the Wolves to hold on, by the xG metric they are fifth in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim down in tenth. Wolfsburg are favourites in this match, unbeaten in their last five on the road, victorious in their last two with four of those five encounters bringing over 2.5 goals after half time.
All glimmers of hope in Bremen’s 1-0 victories over Freiburg and Schalke, in the absence from the starting eleven of Leonardo Bittencourt who scored the winner in both those wins, it was back to the old ways for the River Islanders. Solid as they usually are in the first period, Bremen edged the xG battle 0.13-0.11 before the 2018/19 Europa League semi-finalists turned it on after the break. An outstanding Filip Kostic cross from the left flank picked out inconsistent striker Andre Silva on the hour mark, the Portuguese powered his header past Jiri Pavlenka to set the wheels in motion. In response Werder went on to create chances only worthy of 0.26 xG.
Key man
Having previously highlighted the strength of Kevin Mbabu who scored in the 2-1 defeat to Eintracht last time out, it is time to look at his compatriot and versatile wideman Renato Steffen. The 28-year-old signed from Basel for just under £1.6million in January 2018, proving to be one hell of a bargain. Steffen has scored six and assisted once in his last 12 outings, the 10 time international has reached that figure from just 4.31 xG and has been a constant since the resumption of the league, popping up in dangerous positions the vulnerable Bremen backline will need to be prepared.
Wolfsburg are one of the best attacking teams in the division, with Wout Weghorst yet to hit his best form since the pause in the season, the trip to Bremen provides an ideal opportunity.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Wout Weghorst won it in the closing exchanges to heap misery and concern onto Werder, and nod in the first off a cushty Sunday double.