On fire Eintracht provide Friday night value
Florian Kohfeldt’s sub par Werder Bremen play host to high flying Eintracht Frankfurt in this week’s Friday night Bundesliga action. Adi Hutter’s men have been one of the surprise packages of the season, looking at home inside the top four and calling on the form they showed in their excellent 2017/18 and 2018/19 campaigns. Andre Silva has shown the best form of his career up front and with Werder looking over their shoulders five points above the bottom three, Eintracht are the play here. The visitors did the double over the River Islanders without conceding last term and will take confidence from that as they pursue Champions League qualification.
Hutter’s men are not overperforming; they are a top Bundesliga side and now with a five point cushion over Bayer Leverkusen, six over Borussia Dortmund, they will be there or thereabouts come the final few weeks of the season. Werder are a lower mid table side, who are likely to have little to play as the campaign fizzles out, they are a defence first team.
Werder have scored 24 from 20.1 expected this term, a considerable overperformance, Leonardo Bittencourt remains an influential playing in attacking midfield, if the Eagles can negate the threat he poses then they will go a long way to taming the hosts. Kohfeldt’s men have performed well in containing their opposition conceding 31 from 30.7 expected goals, sitting eighth and 10th respectively for each metric.
Eintracht are trending in fourth spot, in line with the league table, similarly to Werder they have overperformed in front of goal to score 45 from chances equating to 41.7 expected goals and then achieving a sustainable European qualification pushing defensive process of, letting in 30 from 29.6 expected goals.
Not for me, Werder will look to contain and in that we may see a low scoring affair. However with the attacking talent on show, it is hard to be certain which way to swing.
- Werder have scored in six of 10.
- Werder have conceded in six of 10.
- Werder have seen both teams to score in three of 10.
- Werder have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- Eintracht have scored in 10 of 10, also in 18 of 18.
- Eintracht have conceded in eight of 10.
- Eintracht have seen both teams score in eight of 10.
- Eintracht have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of 10.
I am looking to keep it simple after a difficult couple of weeks. Eintracht are the better side and will be brimming with confidence having beaten Bayern Munich last time out.