Valencia will bore Villarreal to submission
Two late goals have given Valencia a commanding lead heading back to the Mestalla and I expect them to come out of the gates very quickly and stall the yellow submarine in Europe once more.
They've beaten Man United, Celtic, Real Madrid and Villarreal
Valencia come into this tie as one of the most in form sides not only in Spain, but the whole of Europe. They have won 8 of their last 11 and have lost just once in 20 games. The last time they lost a home game was to Girona in November. In that run they have beaten Man United, Celtic, Real Madrid and Villarreal 3-0 in La Liga. They have a couple of doubts with Kondogbia ruled out and top scorer Rodrigo Moreno, who missed their league fixture at the weekend a serious doubt too.
In their last ten games Valencia have been involved in O2.5 goals 5 times, BTTS has occurred 6 times and they have claimed 3 clean sheets. Villarreal by comparison have eight O2.5 games, 8 BTTS games and had two clean sheets.
They're unbeaten this season
Villarreal to their credit have a strong pedigree away from home in Europe. They are unbeaten this season, with wins against Zenit and Sporting along with draws against Spartak, Rapid Wien and Rangers. La Liga has been a different proposition entirely though and recent wins against Levante and Girona ended a period of 6 months without a win on the road. In those 7 defeats in the six month period, all of their goals came in the first half, which is a potentially interesting footnote to my selection.
Villarreal have already exceeded their expectations in this Europa League campaign. With many predicting an early exit due to their ongoing relegation battle in La Liga, they have continued to defy the odds in Europe, until now. Conceding late goals has been problematic for the yellow submarine as evidenced by the first leg collapse.
Betting Tip
Valencia’s home form and previous results against their opponents make them impossible to oppose here.
Their strong defence at home (6 of the last 9 home games have featured U2.5 goals) so betting on a boring, grind it out performance is my suggestion and Valencia to win and U2.5 goals is 16/5 with Betfair and I think this is a great price given all the trends I have laid out during the preview.
