Toothless Alaves to be Villarreal's redemption
Potential dark horses of this La Liga season Villarreal, now under the stewardship of former Arsenal boss Unai Emery, host a struggling Alaves side who have only found the net once from their opening three encounters. The Yellow Submarine suffered a humbling 4-0 reality check defeat on Sunday evening and will look to bounce back on home soil, as their host of new additions begin to gel. For Alaves this season looks bleak already, having narrowly survived the drop last term they are in need of a result to stop the rot, currently 19th in the embryonic table. The hosts are strong favourites with good reason.
The Yellow Submarine
Previous to the battering at the hands of Barcelona, Villarreal had demonstrated exactly why they have been tipped to compete for Champions League qualification this term. This will be their third home game in just four league outings and if they perform as they did in the initial two, victory will be safe.
Though the scorelines suggest a tight affair, they were comfortably the better side in their 1-1 draw with Huesca and 2-1 win over Eibar. Dominating the expected goals battle 2.72 – 0.74 first up and then an eye-catching 3.63 – 1.50 in the second match, continue this process with the attacking talent they have and there is a hiding on the horizon. Gerard Moreno and Paco Alcacer provide a clinical touch with bags of La Liga experience that will be too much for Alaves to handle. Moreno has scored twice from 2.80 xG so far this term, taking over four shots per game and accumulating 0.94 xG every time he plays. You could argue it a small sample size but if Villarreal can impose themselves half as much as they have against bottom half outfits in Huesca and Eibar versus Alaves, they are a shoe in.
- Moreno is 13/10 or 2.30 to score at anytime with bet365.
New gaffer Pablo Machin was brought in over the summer and he knows the league well having been in the hotseat at Girona, Sevilla and Espanyol in the not too distant past, yet he has not had the desired effect in the opening few matches.
Offensively is where El Glorioso are glaringly short, they only scored 34 times in 38 games last season and 73% of those where from Joselu and Lucas Perez, they lack variety and creativity. Their one goal from the campaign was a Joselu free kick, portraying the shortfall of inventiveness in the final third. Deyverson has returned to the club for a second spell on loan from Palmeiras this time but has not looked the part stepping in ahead of Perez. They would be delighted to take a point from Estadio de la Ceramica.
It is hard to look away from Villarreal in this one and so use the Asian lines to enhance the value of your bet.