Villarreal to enjoy rivalry upper hand

Former Premier League bosses Javi Gracia and Unai Emery will contest the Valencian Country derby this Friday evening, with the visitors looking to close the gap between themselves and the top four and the hosts to push up into mid table mediocrity. Valencia legend, maybe no more, Dani Parejo lining up for the Yellow Submarine may add a little spice to the occasion in a fixture where Villarreal have a substantial upper hand compared to recent years, Peter Lim continues to run the Mates into the mud. I cannot ignore Villarreal at odds against in this one, they are much the better side and were very unlucky to lose two zip to league leaders Atletico Madrid last time out.

Process

Gracia’s men despite the big title, are bottom half or relegation scrapping side in terms of their expected goals process. Going forward they have scored 30 from 28.8 expected, a sustainable attack ranked at 14th for expected goals for. Then their rearguard action is worse, conceding 35 goals from 38.9 expected, ranking them 16th for the latter metric. On paper it is still a top half side but the off the field issues have really taken their toll and we see a shell of the Valencia that we used to know and love.

Unai Emery’s Yellow Submarine are a top class La Liga side, sitting third in the expected goals standings. They have underperformed particularly in attack but if they can sustain this level of chance creation then they can cut the gap and put themselves back in contention for Champions League qualification. Villarreal have scored 33 from 38.2 expected, a 5.2 goal underperformance, we should see an upturn in finishing at some point before the season’s conclusion. They rank fifth for defensive process having allowed just 26.3 expected goals and letting in 27 as a result, 24-year-old centre back Pau Torres continues to be linked with Europe’s elite and with good reason.

Goals?

Under 2.5 looks a good punt but a little short to excite me, but I would not expect a thriller.

• Valencia have scored in seven of 10.
• Valencia have conceded in six of 10.
• Valencia have seen both teams score in three of 10.
• Valencia have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
• Villarreal have scored in seven of 10.
• Villarreal have conceded in seven of 10.
• Villarreal have seen both teams score in five of 10.
• Villarreal have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.

The Mestalla will not be the same without the fans, but a feisty derby should ensue, Emery’s men have the quality to get over the line.

Valencia - Villarreal Betting Tip

Villarreal to Win with Betway at odds of 11/10 or 2.10.

Bet Villarreal to Win on Betway