Hoffenheim are undervalued on the handicap
Hoffenheim and Hertha couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions. TSG with only one defeat in ten games, including two wide margin wins in their last two and Hertha on a four-game losing streak. Now is the time to capitalize on Hoffenheim’s fancy prices.
Julian Nagelsmann (soon to be of RB Leipzig) is an innovator and his teams tend to score a lot of goals, but he often gets a bit disrespected, so in terms of sports betting, that can lead to a lot of decent prices on a weekly basis. TSG sit just one point outside a Europa League qualifying place and four away from the automatic place so this extended run of good form couldn’t have come at a better time. Nagelsmann will want to leave on a high and with nothing else to play for they will be pushing in each league game from now until the end of the season.
Their only home loss in 2019 has come against Bayern Munich and they have won two of the last three by two goals are more, so the signs for a bundle of home goals is promising. In Andrej Kramaric they have a man who has managed 15 league goals this season and is in the best form of his career. He has scored in five of his last six appearances and he is almost guaranteed to extend that run against Hertha’s increasingly leaky defense.
Worrying times for Hertha
The less said about Hertha’s recent form the better. Five successive defeats including a friendly defeat to Holstein Kiel and a 5-0 drubbing on their last away trip to Leipzig. They seem resigned to their fate as a mid-table side and the fact remains that they shouldn’t be too disappointed with that.
These two sides last met in November and a score draw seems to be the most prevalent result with the last three games dating back to March 2017 finishing, 3-3, 1-1 and 1-1. Given the current run of both sides though I am expecting quite a different outcome today.
The safe bet I have gone with in this game, or the most value while adhering to the thinking that Hoffenheim must win (and well), is TSG -1 on the handicap. It is only EVENS but when you are looking for value on a team at home priced up at 2/5 then I think that taking EVENS as a nice accumulator booster is a good price given the context.
Obviously, there are slightly more adventurous prices as you slide further up the handicap but given Hoffenheim like to concede once even in high scoring wins, I just feel there is less risk and more reward about the -1.