Potential epic at Gander Green Lane
Sutton United versus Port Vale is a mouth-watering encounter between two of the best teams in League Two on Saturday. The Amber and Chocolates have won their last four matches at Gander Green Lane including one Football League Trophy encounter. Vale are trending as the best team in the division and to a man have far more experience than the hosts, Darrell Clarke have won their last four League Two outings and there is an argument for them to be value narrow outsiders here. Both teams are in excellent form and with more of the spotlight on League Two this weekend hopefully they will step up to the plate.
Process
It is hard to find expected goals (xG) numbers for free but experimental361.com and dataviz.theanalyst.com give us a much greater picture when looking for an angle in the third and fourth tier of English football. This one is a bit of a clash of styles, Sutton are the better side in the attacking third but Vale are exceptional in defence.
The hosts are averaging 1.72 xGF per game which is very healthy, I cannot see a scenario where Sutton have any relegation concerns this season. Vale have scored more than Sutton but their process is only 1.29 xGF per game which will need improving if they are to sustain a push for automatic promotion this term.
Clarke’s men are conceding just 0.89 xGA per game so far this season which is mightily impressive where Sutton are allowing 1.16 xGA per game, still decent.
Goals?
This will be a test of Vale’s mettle and it will be interesting to see how Clarke approaches their trip to the capital to face a potential play-off contender. The only way I see my selection not coming in is if Vale blunt the in form Amber and Chocolates.
- Sutton have scored in eight of ten.
- Sutton have conceded in five of ten.
- Sutton have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Sutton have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
- Vale have scored in nine of ten.
- Vale have conceded in five of ten.
- Vale have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Vale have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
I think Vale are a bet here but prefer a goals angle with all three outcomes a real possibility in this fixture.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
4-3 Sutton, this was in by half time