Frosinone continue to be Serie A's whipping boys
SPAL will be looking to build on their win against Roma in their 2PM (UK time) kick-off against Frosinone. SPAL have been a little hot and cold this season, but overall they should be happy with how they have performed so far, which is more than you can say for Frosinone who are most likely to get beaten yet again this weekend.
SPAL's coach Sempelici is one of Serie A's most exciting managers. He has a knack for building his teams around young talent, a habit he picked up from managing Fiorentina's youth team. As I mentioned they've had a bit of a rollercoaster season so far, and it's worth mentioning a couple of stand-put moments, not least their last game where they beat Roma 2-0 away. It was a match that they deserved to win, a fact that their expected goals ratio confirms. Before this victory however SPAL had lost four matches in a row. What should be consideration is that these matches were against particularly difficult opponents, who snuck a few lucky goals past SPAL. SPAL have a good home record, where they have scored an average of 1 goal and conceded an average of 1 goal per game - which is decent for a team like SPAL. They have a number of good players, especially offensively with the likes of Petagna, Paloschi and Kurtic. They will no doubt go to town on Frosinone over the 90 minutes and should score two goals or more. Even though they may be slightly 'over-performing' in the league, their expected goals ratio is inline with their current goal difference. SPAL have all their players available for Sunday's game.
- League Position: 13
Despite their draw at home with Empoli, Frosinone are not a team worthy of Serie A. If there is anywhere that they will pick up 3 points it is at home. At home they have an excellent fan turnout, perhaps their only strength this season. At home they have amassed two points so far this season, from games against Bologna and Empoli. Otherwise, they have lost their other seven matches. They have lost every away match often in humiliating fashion. They have a goal difference of 2-12 at home, with an average of 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded. As I said, Frosinone just don't belong in Serie A. There are underperforming slightly according to their expected goals ratio but that is to be expected when their results have been this bad. There have no stand-out players, apart from perhaps their goalkeeper Sportiello. There is not much more you can say about Frosinone. They've suffered four defeats in a row away from home, and they are fully expected to lose this match. There are no injuries to report for Frosinone.
- League Position: 19
SPAL are clear favourites to win this match. SPAL have shown they have some real quality against much better opposition. Frosinone have picked up two points so far this season; both these points came at home. SPAL will prove too tough to crack, and the stats are there to back me up. I am going to bet on SPAL to win the match outright at odds of 4/5.