Nervy Spain to turn up when it matters
Spain find themselves in a much more stressful situation than they would have expected coming into Euro 2020. But drawing each of their opening two games sees their matchday three encounter with Slovakia a must win to guarantee qualification. Luis Enrique's team have looked good it must be said, however their lack of clinicality has hampered them to a goalless draw with Sweden and saw them pegged back against Poland last time out. As one of the lesser fancied nations in the tournament Slovakia put themselves in a great position by beating Poland 2-1 on matchday one but a narrow 1-0 loss to Sweden in their last game means they too need a result against the Spaniards to seal a spot in the round of 16.
Background
Spain are very short in the market for this encounter, mainly due to their underlying data and Slovakia being one of the lowest rated countries in the competition almost in line with North Macedonia. Therefore I looked at multiple bet builder angles to find value in this game, which was tricky even with three selections. The outcome I came to was to rely on the Spanish backline, having only conceded once in the tournament so far and the budding partnership of Pau Torres and Aymeric Laporte convinced enough to simply get Spain and a clean sheet onside.
Despite the opening match win, my stance on Slovakia has not changed and their lack of creation against Sweden demonstrated where they are. Pavel Hapal will look to spoil the game and stifle Spain’s flow as a result, although considering the depth in class and the favourites’ ability to retain possession I cannot see this having any great impact. An accomplished possession side like Italy were able to take large periods of the game away from Wales in their matchday three encounter and I think La Roja are capable of replicating that. Like him or not, Alvaro Morata is the danger man in front of goal, the 28-year-old has accumulated 2.14 expected goals in just two outings so far, Slovakia cannot cope with the creative strength of Spain so the Juventus forward will get good service in this matchup. He is odds on to score at anytime.
The youthful core to this side should be able to express themselves despite the pressure on Spain, experienced heads in Jordi Alba and Koke should have the knowhow to get them over the line.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Spain finally clicked into gear, 5-0.