Value on the Sounders' resurgence
Seattle Sounders take on CF Montreal in the early hours of Thursday morning in a cross-conference encounter in MLS.
The visitors are flying in the Eastern Conference but looking further into the numbers it is questionable whether their form is sustainable.
The hosts pulled off a very comfortable 3-0 win over Sporting Kansas City last time out on their home patch, and they are at a backable price once again, with Montreal on their travels.
Both sides are inside the play-off places in their respective conferences, but the hosts are less comfortable, potentially providing a motivational edge.
Process
Montreal have unsustainably overperformed in attacking third, scoring 30 goals in 16 games from 22.8 expected goals (xG) for, at an average of 1.43 xGF per game.
However, they will be hoping for some positive variance, having conceded 28 from 18.0 xGA, at an average of 1.13 xGA per game.
Where the visitors have conceded more than the chances they have allowed the opposition they should, it is the opposite with the Sounders.
The hosts have conceded just 17 from 25.1 xGA, at an average of 1.67 xGF per game.
The Sounders are playing catch-up in the Western Conference after a very scratchy start, but they are getting going now, and there is an argument that the market is yet to factor that into their prices.
The 3-0 win over SKC will have built a lot of confidence and the Sounders will be expecting to kick on and make it four wins from five in the competition.
Goals?
The juice on the outright price takes me away from a goals angle, but the following may be worth taking into account when considering an angle.
Sounders have scored in eight of ten.
Sounders have conceded in six of ten.
Sounders have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Sounders have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Montreal have scored in eight of ten.
Montreal have conceded in eight of ten.
Montreal have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
Montreal have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
The Sounders are hitting their straps and I was pleasantly surprised to see their outright price so close to evens.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
2-1 Montreal.