Value on goals in Brazil once again
Santos take on Botafogo in Brazilian Serie A in the early hours of Thursday morning, as the hosts look to propel themselves towards the top end of the division.
The visitors have been on quite a barren run of late, but will fancy their chances of breaching a backline that is not as strong as their goals against column suggests.
The Fish are odds on favourites which does not come as a surprise, sitting just one place above Botafogo in the table, but with home advantage and performing better in both boxes, they are a backable price.
The Fire have been struggling of late and seem more likely to slip down the table than ruffle some feathers in the top half in the near future.
Process
Santos have unsustainably underperformed to score just 20 from 29.1 expected goals (xG) from 17 outings, ranking them fourth in the division on xGF.
Their games have been very low-scoring, unsustainably, when compared to the quality of chances that they have been creating and conceding.
The Fish have conceded just 16 from 17 games so far in the league, but with the opposition chances in that time equating to 25.4 xGA, the tenth best defensive process in the division.
Botafogo are averaging just one goal per game, scoring 17 from 17, from chances equating to 21.0 xGF, also underperforming in the final third.
They rank 16th for attacking process however, compared to the hosts in fourth. Botafogo have conceded 22 from 27.8 xGA, overperforming in that regard, should both sides regress to the mean, which history tells us they will at some stage, they will both score and concede more, suggesting a goal-laden game is not too far away.
Goals?
Santos are the better side according to the numbers, but neither side have been clinical.
I can see this turning and there is some juice in some goals-based angles.
Santos have scored in seven of ten.
Santos have conceded in seven of ten.
Santos have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Santos have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Botafogo have scored in three of ten.
Botafogo have conceded in eight of ten.
Botafogo have seen both teams score in one of ten.
Botafogo have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
2-0 Santos.