Valencia low hanging fruit in the capital

Real Madrid play host to Valencia on Saturday in looking to build their lead at the summit of La Liga. Sevilla appear to be the most competitive title challengers this season under Julen Lopetegui, Carlo Ancelotti will be very content with the opening half of the campaign considering Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane left the club in the summer. Both sides are in midweek Copa Del Rey action against lower league opposition, but that should not be too taxing for either side in pushing for a positive result in this encounter. Valencia are big outsiders and have fallen down the table in recent weeks, their loss to Espanyol last time out does not suggest they come into this one in the best form.


Real are third on expected points despite being so far out in the front in La Liga. Which suggests that they are more catchable in the second half of the campaign, however, with the experience and sheer weight of winners in the squad it looks unlikely that they will be caught.

The Galacticos have been very strong defensively this term and have conceded just 17 from 24.6 expected goals (xG) against. That overperformance is likely to regress in the second half of the season but Valencia have overperformed in attack too, meaning xG does not point towards an obvious angle in terms of the visitors’ attacking performance. The Mates have been very up and down in recent years and a downward spiral would make the test against Real very difficult, Ancelotti’s men are rightful heavy favourites.


I am adding a solid Real defensive display into the mix in the quest for value in this affair.

  • Real Madrid have scored in eight of ten.
  • Real Madrid have conceded in four of ten.
  • Real Madrid have seen both teams score in four of ten.
  • Real Madrid have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
  • Valencia have scored in nine of ten.
  • Valencia have conceded in seven of ten.
  • Valencia have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
  • Valencia have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.

Real have the chance to send a statement out with a comfortable victory as Karim Benzema looks to lead the procession to regain the league title.

Real Madrid - Valencia Betting Tip

Real Madrid + Valencia to Score Under 1.5 goals with Betway at odds of 17/25 or 1.66.

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