Denmark have reached the ceiling
On Saturday at 5pm Denmark go up against Peru in their first World Cup match up. Both teams have met a defensive Sweden side in the pre-tournament friendlies and both failed to score.
It’s always great to have a smaller South American nation at the World Cup who have boisterous and passionate fans, and with captain Paolo Guerrero cleared to play after a controversial drugs ban, it’s really the icing on the cake for Peru.
The market also seems to like Peru as the odds have dropped from 8/5 to 13/10. My guess behind this drop in the odds are Peru’s solid performances in their pre-tournament friendlies, and of course because of the return of talisman Guerrero. I feel like the odds have sank to their lowest point for Peru here, and it’s unlikely they’ll drop further.
Peru overachieved in the qualification rounds when you compare it to their actual statistical output, and that’s why I don’t really believe they deserve to be in the World Cup. Having said that, Peru do have a decent squad of players, but it’s interesting to note that they probably don’t make half as much as Denmark’s players. The fact of the matter is that there are only three teams in the World Cup that make less money than Peru’s players. Although it’s a small side issue, I believe it speaks volumes as to their quality.
Peru’s probable start 11 against Denmark: 4-2-3-1
- Corzo - Rodriguez - Ramos - Trauco
- Tapia - Flores
- Carrillo - Cueva - Farfan
Denmark go into the group as second favourites to qualify from Group C behind France. The word is that they’ll finish second in front of Peru and Australia, and I think that will hold up. If you compare the squads, Denmark’s is clearly better than both Peru’s and Australia’s.
Of course a lot will depend on how Denmark’s star player Christian Eriksen performs, and he really does have the country’s hopes on his shoulders, just as he did in qualifying. But in the wake of Eriksen there are a number of others players we mustn’t overlook. At the forefront of these are players like Sisto, Poulsen, Jørgensen, Cornelius and Dolberg.
The pre-tournament friendlies (although we won’t put too much on them) was a mixed affair for the Danes. All in the all Denmark finished well in their dress-rehearsal for Russia, beating Mexico 2-0 who look likely to finish second in their group.
Denmark’s probable start 11 against Peru: 4-3-3
- Dalsgaard - Kjaer - Christensen - Larsen
- Kvist - Delaney - Eriksen
- Poulsen - Jörgensen - Sisto
Even if you have respect for the market, I still think the ceiling has been reached for Denmark’s odds which have risen from 4/7 to 7/10 on a draw no bet. They’re small margins that we’re talking about but for my money and on the statistics I’ve seen, Denmark have about a 60% chance of winning this game. That being said there’s definitely some value in playing Denmark on a draw no bet for odds of 7/10 and that’s what I’ll be doing.
Money back on Denmark if they draw the game is at 7/10 (1.70) with Betfair.