Serie A top four battle is looking spicy
The top four is really heating up in Serie A, with reigning champions Juventus dragged into the battle following defeat to Atalanta. These two sides are in fifth and sixth, two and four points behind the Old Lady who occupy fourth spot. The pressure surrounding Gennaro Gattuso has intensified since their exit from the Europa League, top four is his remit and a fifth placed finish would see his job under threat. Lazio have done well to remain competitive for Champions League qualification after a difficult first half of the season, competing in the competition this season really took its toll on the squad. Gli Azzurri are odds against favourites and are the stronger side here.
Process
Napoli are in sixth compared to Lazio’s eighth in the expected goals standings with the Ciro Immobile effect once again playing a huge role in Simone Inzaghi’s men’s push. The hosts have the quality to limit his output and in that they gain an advantage in the match. Napoli are stronger at the back then going forward, unsustainably overperforming in attack this term, they have scored 66 from 55.8 expected goals, an overachievement of 9.2 expected goals. They have a defensive process that ranks them inside the top four and it will be a crucial cog in putting a run together in the final stretch. Only Juventus and Inter Milan have conceded less goals than the hosts.
Lazio have been trending as a higher mid table Serie A side all season long and a late flurry towards the end of the campaign should not take away from that in the punting strategy. They have won five of their last six, however four of those wins have been by a one goal margin and the other came alongside conceding three goals to Benevento. A run of that nature cannot continue much longer, only one of those victories came against a top half team, Napoli will pose a different test.
Goals?
It is a big match and in that we could see some cagey tactics, though having said that, both sides need all three points to put the pressure back on the teams above them.
- Napoli have scored in 10 of 10 and 11 of 11.
- Napoli have conceded in six of 10.
- Napoli have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Lazio have scored in nine of 10.
- Lazio have conceded in seven of 10.
- Lazio have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
I cannot ignore Napoli are the better team in Serie A and their point against the league leaders last time out demonstrated where they belong. This season has been a bridge too far for Lazio.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A resounding 5-2 win gets us off to the perfect start this week.