Napoli to pull away on Friday night
Napoli have the chance to pull further clear at the top of Serie A when they host Juventus on Friday evening.
Gli Azzurri have taken the top-flight by storm this season in bidding to win their first Scudetto since Diego Maradona played for the club, and Luciano Spalletti’s men recovered from defeat against Inter Milan with a comfortable victory over Sampdoria last time out.
Juve have been very unconvincing this season, but their defence has put them in a strong position to at least finish in the top four once again this term.
AC Milan are also seven points behind Napoli, and the reigning champions could be Napoli’s biggest challengers in the second half of the season.
Process
The visitors have incredibly conceded just seven goals in 17 league outings, Wojciech Szczesny deserves a lot of credit and recognition for helping Massimiliano Allegri’s side improve on last season, domestically, and head into this match with a chance of closing the gap at the top to just four points.
Napoli have a better defensive process, according to expected goals (xG), than Juve, but have let in six more, conceding 13 from 17 Serie A outings, allowing chances on their own goal at an average of 0.94 xGF per game.
Going forward there is a significant difference between the two sides in looking at season-long xG data, but Juve are still creative enough to keep Napoli looking over their shoulders in the table.
Juve are performing in line with their xGF, scoring 26 goals from 25.2 at an average of 1.48 xGF per game, where Napoli have scored 39 from 36.6, creating shooting opportunities at 2.15 xGF per game.
Home advantage feels significant in such a huge encounter, if Milan drop points this weekend and Napoli win, the title would feel a whole lot closer.
Goals?
Unders could be an angle with the importance of the fixture and Juve’s defensive record, but I am happy to get Napoli onside at a backable price.
Napoli have scored in eight of ten.
Napoli have conceded in five of ten.
Napoli have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Juve have scored in all of their last ten.
Juve have conceded in two of ten.
Juve have seen both teams score in two of ten.
Juve have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
5-1, a statement win for Gli Azzurri.