Sunday night at the San Paolo
Luciano Spalletti is making up for lost time at the start of the season at the San Paolo. Many felt it was a little harsh for Gennaro Gattuso to be relieved of his duties at the end of last season, the former World Cup winner definitely left the club in a better place than they were when he arrived. While the Serie A neutrals await his next job Spalletti has hit the ground running and Napoli have won all four league matches to date at the time of writing. Unsurprisingly coming in as strong favourites to face a Cagliari side who flirted with relegation for the vast majority of the 2020/21 season.
Background
Here are a trio of summer signings to look out for as the season progresses at both clubs as they look to improve on underwhelming campaigns. Napoli have added Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa on loan from Fulham, free agent centre back Juan Jesus and Matteo Politano joined from Inter Milan. Cagliari have signed Martin Caceres from Fiorentina, Henrique Dalbert from Inter and Kevin Strootman on loan from Marseille.
Process
With four wins from four Napoli are trending very well in terms of expected goals (xG). However are looking particularly strong defensively, considering both sides are in midweek action before this fixture there may not be the fireworks produced if the teams were arriving fresher. The hosts are averaging 2.08 xGF and 0.8 xGA per game while the visitors 1.8 xGF and 1.7 xGA, considerably worse off in defence.
With the small sample size and having 24 hours less to prepare for this matchup I am not too keen on a Napoli based play at the prices so am looking at the goal lines for some value.
The bar is set very high for this match with under 3 Asian goals at just above evens and that is my angle in for this match. Napoli are more than capable of keeping a clean sheet on Sunday and Cagliari have underperformed at the back, they should see an increase in their rearguard action soon.
Spalletti will be desperate for Gli Azzurri to continue their good form and the visit of a bottom half side in Cagliari presents a good opportunity to do exactly that. The offering on the goal line is too good to refuse, I am happy to sit on under 3.25 Asian goals and see how it unfolds.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
2-0 Napoli. Comfortable winner.