Bank on Napoli to fill the onion bag at home
Arsenal head to Italy tomorrow looking to consolidate their 2-0 lead gained at the Emirates last week but poor recent away form in Europe means I have little confidence in their ability to perform.
Napoli have scored two or more goals in each of their last ten home games
Defeats away to Rennes and BATE in the knockout rounds were overturned but do not read well on any form book. The comprehensive nature of the defeat in France is the most worrying as Napoli are a formidable outfit at the San Paulo. Napoli have 10 wins from their last 15 home Europa League ties and have lost just once at home to an English side. On the flip side, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been on an indifferent run in March and April. They have as many losses (4) as wins in that time and lost their last two Europa League ties (they haven’t lost more than two in a row since 2013). My favourite stat going into this; Napoli have scored two or more goals in each of their last ten home games. Something that is a necessity if they are to progress from this tie.
Only 3 wins in 13 games, losing 7
As stated previously, Unai Emery’s side have been poor on their away days this season. They’ve managed only 3 wins in 13 games, losing 7. This frailty is simply down to inadequacies in midfield, where they have a tendency to leave gaps and 1v1 situations for their centre backs to deal with. While Napoli were poor last week, I expect Ancelotti to change things up this week and have Milik, Insigne and Mertens operating more centrally in an effort to expose this weakness of the Gunners. Ancelotti this week said he is still “confident” Napoli can overturn the deficit and go on to lift the Europa League for the first time. A lot more was expected of the Naples side after they dropped into the secondary competition as the best third place team from the Champions League.
Arsenal have plenty of defensive frailties
Betting Tip
The odds about a home win are skinny (8/13), but still I'd recommend them in any accumulator, however. Their odds to qualify (31/10) again I find quite skinny for the task at hand (they have failed to overturn their last eight deficits entering the 2nd leg of a European tie.
With this in mind and given their prowess for scoring home goals, I think the value bet is o2.5 home goals at 2/1. Arsenal have plenty of defensive frailties and if the real Napoli turn up at the San Paulo, they will only have to outperform their average by a solitary goal to win the bet, those are the kind of odds every punter should be looking at.
