Real Deal Lille
Ligue 1 table toppers Lille visit in form Monaco on Sunday in one of the most exciting ties around Europe. Christophe Galtier’s men have been bang at it all season and have their sights firmly set on the title with Paris Saint-Germain experiencing a lot of inconsistency and prioritising the Champions League. The evergreen 37-year-old Jose Fonte remains a mainstay and crucial player at the heart of defence for LOSC and will certainly have a busy afternoon looking to keep quiet the likes of Wissam Ben Yedder and Kevin Volland. Lille have artillery of their own in the three Jonathans, Bamba, Ikone and David.
Process
Monaco expected goals data have been strong and has seen them underperform a touch in both box sides, their figures play a large role in their fairly short price as favourites for this encounter, their defensive steel on the other hand is certainly questionable. Monaco have scored 56 goals from 46.9 expected goals, nothing to boast about and an unsustainable overperformance, that is why you pay the big bucks for the likes of Ben Yedder. Niko Kovac’s side have struggled defensively though can consider themselves a touch unlucky to let in 38 goals from 27.4 expected, a new goalkeeper may be on Kovac’s summer shortlist.
As for Lille they have scored 49 from 36 expected goals, a crazily unsustainable overperformance but it is not in attack that their strengths lie. A resolute and well marshalled backline is their best facet and the key reason they will comfortably see themselves qualify for the Champions League season, a significant money spinner for the club, in light of the TV rights fiasco it will be welcomed.
Goals?
Not for me though Monaco have been great entertainers of late.
- Monaco have scored in nine of 10.
- Monaco have conceded in six of 10.
- Monaco have seen both teams score in four of 10, but none of six.
- Monaco have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Lille have scored in nine of 10.
- Lille have conceded in five of 10.
- Lille have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Lille have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
For me the price on Lille is too short, they are so watertight as a defensive unit and I can see Monaco getting frustrated and running out of ideas. LOSC have the talent and experience to take the win.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
The Lille backline continues to excel, a goalless draw earns us a half win.