Intrepid Bayern to beat Liverpool
Liverpool will host Bayern tomorrow in the first leg of the Champions League round-of-16 tie. I'll probably get some stick with this statement, but doesn't Liverpool's style of play remind you a bit of Bayern's? Both teams want to control the play and keep possession. Neither team are particularly aggressive, preferring to wait for the perfect time to go on the offensive. What does this mean for the match? That both teams will be cautious, and it's likely the game will be decided by individual errors.
Liverpool
Liverpool reached the final last year (lost against Real Madrid 3-1) but had to work hard this season to make it out of the group stage whereas Bayern Munich breezed through theirs.
Many people had written them off after some dismal results. Gary Neville advised Klopp to focus on the league, and at first it looked like the German had listened to him. Having lost to both PSG and Red Star Belgrade, Liverpool took it down to the wire. It was thanks to a goal from Salah and a miraculous last-minute save from Alisson Becker that Liverpool were able to beat Napoli in the final group stage match and progress to the last 16.
It is remarkable that Liverpool, who did so well in Europe last season have had so many problems this season. Especially when they have been on the road. They ave lost 4 out of their 8 matches away from home, but have remain unbeaten in 19 matches at home (14 wins).
They have enjoyed a 10 day break in which Klopp took them abroad to train and recover after they dropped points against both West Ham and Leicester, as well as an easy win against Bournemouth.
The squad: Dejan Lovren will most likely be missing, and Joe Gomez is injured. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is still out, and will only be fit for the semi-final stage (if Liverpool make it that far). Virgil Van Dijk is missing through suspension, after picking up three yellow cards in the group stage.Their attacking trio however are fully fit.
Possible starting XI:
- Alisson
- Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Fabinho, Robertson
- Wijnaldum, Henderson, Keita
- Salah, Firmino, Mané
Bayern Munich
They started the season slowly but have now come into some form again and are challenging for top spot in the Bundesliga. It looks like the market expects them to overtake Dortmund and win the Bundesliga again this year.
They have won 9 out of their last 10 matches
They did lose to Bayern Leverkusen 2 weeks ago but we shouldn't read too much into that. They also stand a good chance of winning the DFB Cup. But I think it is the Champions League that they really have their eyes on, a competition in which they have reached 8 semi-finals in 10 seasons.
They enjoyed a smooth ride to the last-16 this season and along with Barca they remain unbeaten in this season's CL. They have been brilliant away from home, with 8 straight wins. The last time they lost away from home in the CL was against PSG in September 2017. They also have a great record in the last-16, with 11 wins out of the last 14.
The squad: Kingsley Coman had to leave the field with an injury against Augsburg after scoring 2 goals but but it looks like he is ready to return for this match at Anfield. Thomas Müller is suspended for this match.
Potential starting XI:
- Neuer
- Kimmich, Sule, Hummels, Alaba
- Martinez, Thiago
- Gnabry, James, Coman
- Lewandowski
Tip
Away goals are so important at this stage of the competition and with Bayern's attacking ability I think they will score at least one goal against Liverpool. Especially since Virgil van Dijk is suspended. Bayern also have a world class defence, and I see Liverpool finding it difficult to wear them down, even at Anfield. Bayern have also shown that they are a team back in form. Liverpool, on the other hand, have looked more vulnerable than usual.
I am leaning towards Bayern here, and considering that the market is backing Liverpool, I can't resist a bet on Bayern at odds of 5/2 with Bethard
