Rome derby time
The first Rome derby of the Serie A gets underway this Sunday with Jose Mourinho and Maurizio Sarri locking horns at the Stadio Olimpico. Lazio struggled to deal with the balancing act with the Champions League and the Italian top-flight last season and went on to finish sixth, however they still outperformed their cross city rivals who ended up seventh and failed to keep pace with the top six. It feels like there is a clear top seven in Italy at the moment with Inter Milan, Atalanta, AC Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Lazio and Roma with Sassuolo closest to competing with them. But only four can attain the golden ticket of Champions League football and Roma have not played on Europe’s biggest stage for three years now.
Background
The weight of expectation is greater on the shoulders of Mourinho after what he achieved with Inter in Italy. Sarri is known as more of a process man who needs time to develop a group of players and this season with the Eagles may be seen as a bedding in period, with competing for the top four a bonus.
Lazio have brought in Pedro from Roma this summer, the first transfer between the clubs in a long while, and so it will be interesting to see how the Roma fans receive him on Sunday. Felipe Anderson and Elseid Hysaj, the latter being a player Sarri is familiar with, have also come in to add some further quality in wide areas.
Tammy Abraham and Rui Patricio are the headline signings with the Yellow and Reds, Mourinho will want to make up for lost time this season. His reputation has taken a hit in the last few seasons at Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Process
Lazio’s expected goals (xG) data places them ninth in the division compared to eight in the table with Roma sixth compared to fifth. Lazio are averaging 1.6 xGF and 1.6 xGA where Roma are 1.73 xGF and 1.25 xGA per game so better in both metrics, though only off a sample size of four games Roma have looked the better side in the opening quartet.
With that in mind, it is a Roma based play that entices me the most, although the draw is quite an intriguing price at 3.50 but my trusty Asian Handicap is the selection I am tipping. A draw and we get our stake bet a win and we are in profit.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
3-2 Lazio more comfortably than the scoreline suggests. A first loss in six for us.