Saturday night cracker in the capital

Lazio host Atalanta on Saturday evening in the race for the top four in Serie A.

Maurizio Sarri is quietly doing a very good job with the Eagles after what has been a difficult first two seasons in charge in the Italian capital.

La Dea have dropped off after looking, at one stage, like the most likely side to challenge Napoli for the Scudetto.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s men are the stronger by the underlying numbers, but that is something we have been saying for years now, and Sarri has found a way to have Lazio finding the net with relentless consistency.

There is not a lot between these two sides, and one angle stood out amongst all others ahead of the fixture on Saturday.


The two sides are almost identical defensively, however Lazio have overperformed and conceded eight less goals than the visitors.

The Eagles have conceded 16 goals from 20 league outings, the second best defensive record in the division.

Atalanta have the more potent forward line and have posted just under 0.3 xGF per game more than Lazio so far this season, that said, home advantage will likely even that margin up a little.

Stefan Radu is out injured the hosts while the visitors are missing Davide Zappacosta, Jose Luis Palomino, Joakim Maehle and Luis Muriel, with the latter duo suspended after picking up red cards last time out.

This should be a fascinating tactical battle as Gasperini and Sarri lock horns, Atalanta seem like the more dynamic attacking unit, however, Lazio have the big game players to turn it on and take a huge step towards Champions League football for next season.


My angle into this fixture, both teams to score was a bit too short, so I am willing to take overs given the approaches of the two managers and the numbers suggesting that Lazio’s defence is not as strong as the goals against column suggests.

  • Lazio have scored in eight of ten.

  • Lazio have conceded in five of ten.

  • Lazio have seen both teams score in three of ten.

  • Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.

  • Atalanta have scored in eight of ten.

  • Atalanta have conceded in nine of ten.

  • Atalanta have seen both teams score in seven of ten.

  • Atalanta have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.

Lazio - Atalanta Betting Tip

Over 2.5 goals with Betway at odds of 5/6 or 1.83.

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