Kaliningrad Calling
THE HISTORICAL PRUSSIAN capital and modern-day Russian exclave of Kaliningrad plays host to the third and final Group G match for England and Belgium. With both teams sitting pretty after racking-up six points from two games, this game promises to be a shoot-out for the top spot in the group. Or does it...
England 🦁
The Three Lions have made their best start to a major tournament in decades with two wins out of two, eight goals scored, and passage to the knock-out stages already confirmed. Not only that but their captain and #9 Harry Kane leads the race for the Golden Boot with five goals in just two games including a hat-trick in the last match. Not bad for tournament football's perennial underachievers and habitual nearly-men! However, these first two games were against relatively weak opposition.
England haven't faced any attacking threats that come close to the likes of Belgium's Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Dries Mertens. How England's three-man defensive system will combat attacks from the Red Devils remains to be seen, yet one feels manager Gareth Southgate may have to alter his tactics to stop the Belgian firepower. Southgate has indicated that he will be resting some players for this match but also that he wants to keep the momentum from the first two games going. Striker Harry Kane will naturally want to cement his position at the top of the scoring charts.
Complicating matters in this game is the fact that finishing 1st in Group G might actually lead to a more difficult route to the latter-stages of the tournament by potentially throwing-up a quarter-final match against Brazil.
With the pressure well and truly off, I think both teams will exhibit some defensive frailties in this match.
Belgium 😈
Like England, Belgium have impressed in the tournament to date with two wins and eight goals scored. Much has been made of their current crop of talent and the words 'golden' and 'generation' have been thrown around a lot, and a bit too cheaply for my liking. This too will be the first major test of the Red Devils against a team that on paper would have been slight underdogs against them before the tournament began. However, with England's recent momentum and free-scoring attacking style there for all to see, this will be a test of the Belgian defence.
Under Roberto Martinez Belgium have won 11 out of 12 competitive fixtures. But like England in qualifying they have rarely been tested. At Euro 2016 the Red Devils came unstuck against a Gareth Bale inspired Wales side in the quarter-finals, so this generation has experienced a big hiccup before. Will that motivate them or hinder them in this tournament? This game will ultimately just decide the top two positions in Group G, yet both teams will be eager to strut their stuff and show other contenders for the trophy that they are made of trophy-winning stuff.
Moreover, noises coming out of the Belgian camp would seem to indicate that Martinez sees squad rotation and the resting of key players as even more vital than Gareth Southgate does. That said I expect both managers to field their star strikers for at least the first two-thirds of the match.
My Betting Tip 💷
With the pressure well and truly off, I think both teams will exhibit some defensive frailties in this match. In the race for the tournament's coveted Golden Boot trophy, there's two major contenders who will, I think, really want to bang in a goal or two in this game - Harry Kane (5 goals in 2 games) and Romelu Lukaku (4 goals in 2 games). However, because of an ankle injury to the Belgium and Manchester United striker in the second game against Tunisia, and his subsequent inability to recover in time means he won't feature tonight. Against a weakened Belgium, I think a slightly changed England will edge it, but potentially expect a bunch of goals. For these reasons I'm betting on England to win & Both teams to score at boosted odds of 11/2 with Betfair.
NOTE: This betting tip was modified at 08:45 on 28 Jun 2018. This was due to news of Lukaku's injury invalidating the previous tip.
Post bet chat :
Is it still coming home, Gareth? Contrary to what the England manager had previously stated England fielded a greatly weakened B-team for this match. Belgium made eight changes too. Januzaj scored the winner in a pretty stale game of football that lacked quality apart from the second-string Belgium midfield who gave their manager something to ponder. Hoping for a bit more of a thrill in the knock-out stages.