An Iberian Derby after a bombshell
Day two of World Cup 2018. The Friday night prime time fixture is an Iberian derby, and the pre-match soap opera has focused on the Spanish. Here is my betting tip for this match.
Portugal 🇵🇹 - Much has been made of Portugal’s overdependence on their star-man Cristiano Ronaldo, yet the Euro 2016 winners can draw on some considerable talent from other quarters coupled with a solid tournament pedigree. The likes of Moutinho, Mario, A Silva and B. Silva are top quality players who, I think, have helped to take the pressure off of CR7. Portugal has consistently reached the latter stages of major tournaments in the era of Cristiano Ronaldo. And they managed to secure their maiden trophy in Paris despite the absence of their star-man for the majority of the final match due to injury.
Despite this triumph the Portuguese travel to Russia as unfancied outsiders. As a team, they just don’t seem to have the pizzazz of a Brazil or a France. At the centre of their defence is the reliable but ageing partnership of Fonte and Pepe. However they can draw upon the likes of Bernardo Silva who’s coming off of the back of a cracking season at Man City playing an instrumental part in their title-winning midfield. And, of course, Portugal do have Ronaldo - a potential game-changer if there ever was one.
Possible Portugal Starting XI (4–4–2):
- Patricio
- Cedric, Pepe, Fonte, Guerreiro
- Moutinho, Carvalho, Mario, B. Silva
- A. Silva, Ronaldo.
Spain 🇪🇸 - Recent days have seen Spain sensationally relieve their manager Julen Lopetegui of his duties after he announced that he’s to be appointed Real Madrid manager after the conclusion of the tournament in Russia, much to the chagrin of the Spanish FA. Lopetegui’s hasty removal sees former Spain centre-back Fernando Hierro promoted from coach to manager and the Spanish side has but a few days to pull themselves together and focus on the task at hand - an Iberian derby on the second day of a World Cup finals.
La Roya are without doubt one of the pre-tournament favourites, with the bookies having them just behind the favourites Brazil and the 2014 winners Germany. The quality, experience and sheer amount of out-and-out winners throughout Spain’s squad is unrivaled, with World Cup, La Liga and Champions League winners all over the dressing room. But surely recent events will only serve to have a destabilising effect on the team's preparations?
Possible Spain Starting XI (4–5–1):
- De Gea
- Odriozola, Ramos, Pique, Alba
- Busquets, Iniesta, Isco, Thiago, Silva
- Costa
My Betting Tip 💷
Portugal (4) and Spain (3) only conceded seven goals combined during 20 qualifying matches for World Cup 2018. Despite some high-profile attacking names I expect this match to be a somewhat cagey opening affair for both teams, devoid of the free-scoring penetration we’re often accustomed to seeing from some of the star names on show when running out for their domestic outfits.
Both teams will expect to progress from this group and fairly easily win their other two matches, however both teams will also want to get off to the best possible start by securing a victory. I’m not sure who’s gonna win this one but whoever does win it, I think it will be via nicking a goal and scraping a 1-0 win. Or – and I know it’s a tad pessimistic to predict this – a 0-0 draw is a real possibility.
That’s why I’m betting on under 1.5 goals for this match at a price of 13/8 with Betfair.
Post bet chat :
Evidently this match went completely the other way to my tip! Rather than the cagey affair I envisaged it turned into a 3–3 thriller, and one where the defending was pretty shocking combined with some clinical and exquisite finishing.