Attack is the best form of defence
On Saturday at 2PM UK time, Genoa will play Atalanta at the Luigi Ferraris stadium. The home team is getting away with not winning matches, even of they have no problem scoring. Atalanta on the other hand are winning matches and scoring goals, but have a problem not conceding.
With Prandelli now in charge the hope is that Genoa's fortunes will be reversed. They started this season's Serie A in fine fashion but since then things have gotten steadily worse. Genoa have now gone ten matches without a win; four draws and six losses. They are simply conceding too many goals to win games, because as I said their problem is not their attack. In nine of their matches and in all their home matches Genoa have scored goals, despite not always winning. At home Genoa is averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded, which are not bad statistics considering they have not won at home since September. All these figures are in line with their expected goals. The reason they are scoring so many goals is Piatek, the midfielder who is leading the goal scoring charts with 12 so far. Genoa plays a three man back line even though I am not convinced that Radu is really Serie A quality. There are no new injuries for Genoa.
- League Position: 16
In contrast to Genoa, Atalanta started this season badly but have slowly improved. Four wins in the last seven matches away from home and three wins in out of the last four at home. Atalanta have really grown into their skin as the season has progressed, but they still need to address the discrepancy between their home and away form. At home, they have scored 1.71 goals and conceded 0.71, but away from home they have scored 2.33 goals and conceded 1.88. Atalanta's statistics are in line with their expected goals. They have strong attack in Zapata, Gomez, and Ilicic, but at the back the they just are not good enough. Their goal difference 17-15 on the road over the eight matches tells its own story. This Atalanta team just doesn't know how to keep a clean sheet. There are no new injuries.
- League Position: 11
It could be that Atalanta edge it as favourites for this match, whilst a draw feels like a real possibility. But, if we look at the statistics this does not look like it will be a goal-shy affair. Genoa are scoring at home for fun, but also letting in a steady stream of goals. Atalanta have scored 17 goals in 8 games and have not kept a clean sheet once. I will bet on them both to score at odds of 7/10