Relegation six pointer in Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf host Paderborn in possibly the most impactful Bundesliga fixture of the weekend with 16^th and 18^th going head-to-head. The visitors prop up the table having only picked up 16 points from 25 outings, the suspension providing them a chance to reflect on their shortcomings and throw everything at an unlikely escape from the drop in the last nine matches. They are six points behind Fortuna occupying the relegation playoff spot on 22 points with Werder Bremen sandwiched in between the two on 18. The hosts are favourites, but the underlying numbers suggest Paderborn are good enough to justify swapping league positions with Uwe Rosler’s men.

Background

Both sides were on barren runs going into the pause of the campaign, Fortunen only managing one win from their last eight with the same statistic applicable for Paderborn.

• Fortuna Dusseldorf last six – 1W, 3D and 2L.
• Paderborn last six – 1D and 5L.

The expected goals table has Paderborn only a point from their Saturday afternoon opponents instead of six, with Fortuna putting up a better fight against the drop than their numbers pose. Werder Bremen being an established topflight club will be doing all they can to use the break as an advantage, there will be plenty more twists to come.

Ones to watch

Rouwen Hennings is one of the standout players from these two teams, he has scored 11 times in 24 outings and has almost single handedly given Fortuna a chance at survival. The 32-year-old has produced the 11 strikes from an xG of just 8.7, pointing towards his excellent finishing qualities. He has stepped up to the level having spent a large part of his career as a consistent goal-getter in the second tier of German football, Hennings is approaching his best season tally and 50 goals for Fortunen, so has a lot to fuel motivation in the dog fight.

The main playmaker for the hosts is Erik Thommy, the 25-year-old is having somewhat of a breakout season in a struggling cause. The versatile attacking midfielder has contributed five goals and four assists this term and could be a match winner in this encounter drifting into the half spaces and creating chances for the frontman. Rosler has mainly deployed Thommy off the left flank but his role is very fluid, and one Paderborn must be prepared to deal with.

It has been a truly grim campaign for the visitors who were promoted as runners up in 2018/19 alongside Koln and Union Berlin have adjusted much more impressively. Kai Proger has been a key player on the right wing contributing two goal and six assists in the 27-year-old’s first ever Bundesliga season, Paderborn are the stronger attacking contingent and definitely have the ability to spring a surprise in this fixture and kickstart their relegation battle.

Fortuna Dusseldorf - Paderborn Betting Tip

It is a very evenly matched encounter; Paderborn will give everything against a more consistent Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Both Teams to Score + Paderborn (+1.25) Handicap with bet365 at odds of 29/25 or 2.16.

Bet Both Teams to Score + Paderborn (+1.25) Handicap on Bet365