Sampdoria to hit purple patch
Here's my early betting tip for the Serie A lunchtime match between Fiorentina and Sampdoria.
- Kick Off: 11:30 Sunday 20/1
- Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)
Fiorentina
The Viola have not had a particularly successful season so far, and even though expectations were not that high, tenth place is definitely a disappointment. It should be pointed out however that it is very tight in the upper half of the table and that Fiorentina are only four points from a spot in the Europa League and only a further two points from Lazio and a Champions league place.
If we look at their results we can see that they simply draw too many games and between October to December they went eight games straight without a win, six of which ended in a draw.
It's my understanding that they've not really achieved the result they deserved and that they should have performed better than their points record suggests. We can look at their last two matches in the Serie A which demonstrates my point.
- 0-1 loss to Parma: 61% possession, 16-3 shots & 7-2 shots on goal.
- 0-0 against Genoa: 57% possession 8-7 shots & 6-3 shots on goal.
It's now a new year and Fiorentina got a great start to 2019 with a 2-0 win away against Torino in the Coppa Italia. If we look at the statistics we can see that Fiorentina had 5-0 in shots on target. This weekend they will play this year's first home match, and they are strong at home. This season they have achieved an average of 1.89 per home game compared to 0.90 on the road.
Sampdoria
Sampdoria have become one of Europe's hipster teams and many have begun to believe that they're better than they actually are. I think the team has become a little overrated thanks to the fact that they have some interesting players and enjoyed some good performances against the bigger teams. There's lots of evidence to suggest that Sampdoria are not as good as their league position suggests.
If we look at the stats we can see that Sampdoria are 16th in terms of shots per game and 11th when it comes to shots on goal per game.
Per 90 minutes I Blucerchiati have a negative shots statistics of -2,75. These aren't stats that a top half of the table team should have. As those who follow the Serie A will know, Sampdoria are notoriously bad away from home. This season has been extreme in this regard with 1.20 points per match away from home and 1.89 per match at home. But if we look at last season the stats were 2.05 points per match at home compared to 0.79 per match away from home, which was the greatest difference in the league.
Betting tip
I don't agree with the table in that Sampdoria are a better team than Fiorentina this season. I agree with the betting sites in that Fiorentina are the better team, which is reflected in the odds giving them over a 50% chance of a win. If we look at odds this season we can see that there is often value in backing Fiorentina compared with Sampdoria.
I'm backing a Fiorentina win at odds of 10/11 with bet365.
