Title favourites to enjoy Friday night in Florence
Title challenging Inter Milan travel to Florence to face a somewhat misfiring Fiorentina side who passed up a lead at Torino last time out, seeing two players receive their marching orders. AC Milan were one goal victors in Bologna, keeping Inter at arms length at the summit of Serie A as a result. Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku are just as devastating and the squad should cope fine with their Coppa Italia semi final versus Juventus on Tuesday night along with this fixture before we hit the weekend. There is little value in backing the visitors outright, so finding value takes a little more time, Fiorentina are better than 11th position suggests.
Process
Internazionale have the best attack in the division, there is no debate, ruthless finishing combined with pace from the flanks and finesse from midfield is a deadly combination. Defensively their process needs to improve if they are to win the Scudetto, as we enter the business end of the season they are the bookies’ favourites for the title.
Fiorentina have been wasteful in attack scoring just 21, the third least in the division, from chances equating to 27.4 expected goals. Trending bang in mid table in defence, conceding 31 from 31.1 expected, ranking them 12th and 11th for the two metrics. Inter have scored 49, the most in the league, from 41.2 expected and let in 23 from 23.2. A regression in their clinical nature would see them fall away from the title race, they must improve the defensive process to back it up.
Goals?
Hard to call, Fiorentina do not score a lot so it is hard to see an overs play, maybe use the Asian Goal line to find some value in an unders punt but I will not be taking that route.
- Fiorentina have scored in eight of 10.
- Fiorentina have conceded in seven of 10.
- Fiorentina have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Fiorentina have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Inter have scored in nine of 10.
- Inter have conceded in seven of 10, but in just one of their last four.
- Inter have seen both teams score in seven of 10, but in just one of their last four.
- Inter have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
Inter are the angle here, despite the hosts’ solid process and Inter’s midweek excursion, they will have too much quality and depth to consider any other angle. Use the Asian Handicap to find value.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
And we’re back on the green train. Ivan Perisic and the ever reliable Nicolo Barella got the goals in an important 2-0 win for Inter.