A Very English Curse
England are taking a far more exciting young squad to Russia than they've taken to recent major tournaments. It feels like a more balanced group, without the problem of too much competition for key positions that has previously led them to tinker with the team and the formation far too much during the course of a major tournament.
I think England will progress relatively smoothly from Group G and probably also from the Round of 16. In the quarter-finals, I think the English curse has a good chance of rearing its ugly head and that England's fate will once again be sealed from twelve yards.
Three Lions on their shirts
England has a dreadful penalty shoot-out hoodoo, a curse that afflicts the national team and the nation's footballing psyche.
It's starting to become a self-fulfilling prophecy that England exits every major football championship on penalties. England and its players are seemingly unable to cope with the intense pressure that comes with tournament football, and the epitome of such pressure lies in the dreaded penalty shoot-out. Despite the fact that they possess a set of players who have been refreshed and renewed over the decades, it seems like the curse lives through the ages. How is a Harry Kane or a Dele Alli affected by the history of Waddle's or Batty's penalty misses in the 90s? Perhaps the English media just thrives upon this repeated narrative?
If penalties are bad for the English, penalties taken by Germans are even worse!
That said, England has lost on penalties at major tournaments in 1990, 1996, 1998, 2004, 2006 and 2012. The English have only won one penalty shoot-out, which was against Spain in the Euro 96 quarter-finals. Even then, England were knocked-out by Germany on penalties in very next match in the semi-finals. In this shoot-out at the old Wembley stadium, the key sudden death penalty was taken by the current England manager Gareth Southgate (pictured above) and was promptly saved by the German keeper.
If penalties are bad for the English, penalties taken by Germans are even worse! England have lost on penalties to Germany on three separate occasions, and as luck would have it its quite likely that these two teams will meet again in the quarter-finals in Russia.
Looking at the quality and experience in the current teams, Germany would be a clear favourite in any penalty shootout. Germany has the better goalkeeper, and significantly more routine penalty takers such as Kroos, Müller and Hummels. England has a young and inexperienced squad, who may find it challenging to cope with the intense pressure situation of a possible penalty shootout.
Betting Tip
Of course, it should all be taken with a pinch of salt when it comes to talk of curses and hoodoos. But there is a long-term psychological impact here and also a qualitative problem when it comes to penalties. England may even come unstuck in a penalty shootout in the Round of 16 against Colombia who have stable and reliable penalty takers in James, Bacca and Falcao.
It should also be noted that in World Cup knock-out games it is most common to go out on penalty-kicks. So it is with a heavy heart that I am betting on England departing the 2018 World Cup on penalties at odds of 9/2 with Betway.
My sincere apologies to any patriotic English punters out there!
