Fine margins either way will decide La Liga tie
Eibar come into this tie looking to pile the misery on struggling Rayo Vallecano but their tussles with Los Franjirrojos are traditionally tight, there’s nothing about this tie that figures to be any different.
Eibar
Los Armeros have had a very indifferent run of late. Their position in midtable leaves them equidistant from both the relegation and European places on points and with seemingly little to gain from the last few weeks of the season. Their last 10 games have seen them draw six times with two wins and two defeats.
They have only lost 1 of their last 12 home games however and have turned Ipurua Municipal Stadium into an entertaining fortress. Home fans usually see plenty of goals for their ticket price but not too many wins via large margins. Top scorer Charles is in a bit of a drought (he hasn’t found the net in six) yet 8 of his 12 goals this season have come at home so you’d imagine a test against one of La Liga’s bottom feeders comes at the perfect time for him.
Rayo Vallecano
The away form of Vallecano will be giving manager Paco Jemez nightmares. 2018/19 has contained 9 defeats from their last 12 away games but three of their last five have been by the odd goal and their two wins away from home during this time were by the minimum as well.
A good performance to lose by two at the Camp Nou shows that they are capable of better and in striker Raul De Tomas, they have a goal-scorer in a bit of form at the moment. The Spaniard has 3 in 5 with two of those coming away from home and Rayo have managed to nick a goal in each of their last six games on the road.
Historically Tight
These teams have only met six times in the entirety of their histories but bar a 5-0 drubbing by Eibar back in 2004, the other five score-lines have been 1-0,1-2, 0-1, 2-0 and 1-2. Although the books have the home team as prohibitive favourites, the stats would suggest that the game itself may be a lot closer than people think.
There is little to suggest a blow out from either team and with Rayo knowing a win would help catapult them towards safety, expect Jemez to send them out to frustrate and nick something on the counter attack or from a set piece in the second half.
Betting Tip
The value play in this game comes not from an outright win for either side but relying on one side winning by a small margin, which has been the historic pretence of the fixture and the form run of the last 10 games, which is the most informative way to approach these games.
Taking all this into account my selection in this game would be Eibar to win by 1 goal at 12/5 with Betfair. I flirted with the idea of win and BTTS but the nature of Rayo’s style means it could be a low scoring game and a win by the minimum looks the obvious for the home team, this price covers the 1-0 for you as well as the 2-1, both the most likely score outcomes.
