Juicy price on Sassuolo at hapless Crotone
With the bottom four in Serie A cut four points adrift of the rest of the division, rock bottom Crotone, who sit four points behind Torino in 17th, welcome early season high flyers Sassuolo on Sunday. Roberto De Zerbi’s men have seen regression hit hard in recent weeks but to such is not a surprise given their expected goals overperformance in the early part of the campaign, the bookies are providing value in an odds against play for the Black and Greens to get the win here, they are on a tough run but Crotone have a mountain to climb. Sassuolo are winless in their last five league games, however this price is an overreaction, they have the quality to get past Crotone.
Process
In terms of expected points the hosts also trend as the worst team in the division but have certainly seen a huge underperformance defending their own goal. Struggling to pick themselves back up after going a goal down has been a theme this term. The Pythagoreans have scored 22 from 19.7 expected goals, relegation form, but gone on to concede 50 a league high from 37.5 expected goals, 12.5 more have flown in than predicted, that will not continue if they can halt the capitulation.
Sassuolo have been trending as a mid table side all season so it is not a shock to see them regress to the mean in this poor run. They rank eighth in the table compared to 12 by expected points, scoring 34 goals from 28.3 expected and letting in 32 from 34.4, an all round overperformance but still that of a side that has plenty of quality to beat Crotone.
Goals?
Combine goals with an outright play to enhance if you wish, for me over 2.5 goals and both teams to score look good punts.
- Crotone have scored in seven of 10.
- Crotone have conceded in nine of 10.
- Crotone have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Crotone have seen over 2.5 goals in nine of 10.
- Sassuolo have scored in nine of 10.
- Sassuolo have conceded in 10 of 10.
- Sassuolo have seen both teams score in nine of 10.
- Sassuolo have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
This could be an exciting one as the hosts look to bounce back from three straight defeats. Sassuolo to win plus over 2.5 looks a nice price at 3.32 with bet365 but given the value in punting for De Zerbi’s men alone, I am not going to overcomplicate things.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
The slim margins fell in our favour this time around, let's put that week behind us and look ahead to the return of the Champions League.