Crew to gain momentum at Cincinnati
Perennial strugglers Cincinnati look to boost their bid to avoid propping up the Eastern Conference for a third successive campaign when they play host to 2020 MLS Cup winners Columbus Crew. The hosts have started slightly better than other editions of the competition and sit two places above the bottom in 12th, but still trending as a minnow franchise. The Crew have struggled a touch since their CONCACAF Champions League venture and are winless in their last three coming into this. As narrow outsiders I see value in siding with the visitors, they are bound to pick up at some point and have shown their true quality in glimpses.
Process
The expected goals data does not speak kindly for either of these sides, they are both currently overperforming to be in underwhelming positions in the table. The standout facet on show in this fixture is the Crew’s backline, they have conceded just nine from 11 outings, ranking them second, from 11.4 expected goals against, despite the overperformance still the third best process in the Eastern Conference. Their attacking contingent are yet to hit their straps entirely but have not received the service as yet. MLS stalwart Gyasi Zardes has scored four of their last six goals, they are averaging one goal per game.
Cincy look the more potent going forward but the last few seasons suggests that may not last, they have underperformed to score 10 from 13.4 expected and let in 18 from 17.0 expected goals. Therefore actually only overperforming in terms of expected points rather than the individual metrics, a crumb of optimism.
Goals?
Not an angle for me considering defeat would see either team lose considerable ground on the playoffs.
- Cincinnati have scored in six of ten.
- Cincinnati have conceded in eight of ten.
- Cincinnati have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Cincinnati have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
- Crew have scored in five of ten.
- Crew have conceded in eight of ten.
- Crew have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Crew have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
A bit of a pick’em, important to get more than one result onside in this instance. So I will side with the strength of Columbus Crew. Hopefully they can begin another hot streak, and gain the momentum required to push back up into the playoffs.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
The Crew come back from 2-0 down to ensure our stake is returned. 2-2.