Barcelona will never be this kind of value again
One team are Champions of Spain and seemingly coasting through to another Champions league final, the other is looking for one win that could save them from the La Liga trapdoor.
CHAMPIONS CONFIRMED
Usually I would always favour the side with everything to play for but in this case and given the emphatic result at the Camp Nou last Wednesday, I actually think that it is Barcelona who are overpriced even with the planned rotation. This could be the most profitable weekend of the year to back the best team in club football.
Based on stats alone you’d be hard pressed to find a reason outside Iago Aspas to see Celta winning this one. Barcelona have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten games and averaged two goals a game during that period themselves. The only goals conceded were that bizarre 4-4 anomaly against Villarreal and another to Real Sociedad (off the back of that wonderful performance at home to Manchester United). They haven’t lost an away game in the league all season and Valverde is not one to losing for the sake of it. He will be expecting squad players like Dembele, Malcom et al to come in, contribute and put their hand up for selection at Anfield next week.
CELTA LOVE SCORING....AND CONCEDING
Celta Vigo are almost a polar opposite to their Catalan opponents. They possess the third worst defense in the league, conceding around 1.63 goals per game on average. This means they almost always need to score multiple goals to win games, resulting in Celta having the highest BTTS percentage in La Liga with a whopping 62.86%. This stat has been even more prevalent recently at home as they have abandoned all sense of caution, resulting in six of the last eight games at the Estadio de Balaidos seeing both teams score.
Fran Escriba is unlikely to change his approach which has seen them rattle off three wins in a row (all btts) and climb out of the relegation zone and while I do expect them to breach the makeshift Barcelona rear guard, I also expect the stand in Catalan attackers to exploit the space left as the full backs maraud forward.
Funnily enough Barcelona have seen almost 30% of their away fixtures finish 0-0 at the break and this could be a bet for those wanting something at a bigger price but it will fall just short of the value presented by my selection.
Celta Vigo - Barcelona Betting Tip
My punt for this game and it is hard to comprehend when you will get another chance to be on Barcelona at this price, isBarcelona + BTTS at 9/2. Usually the caveat of this bet is wondering how the opposition will score but in this instance I feel the stakes of the game for the hosts, the rotation of the defense of Barcelona and the individual form of Iago Aspas mean that Celta can nick a goal while ultimately coming up short at the end of the 90 minutes.
