Alaves surprise outsiders for trip to Cadiz
La Liga newboys and surprise package Cadiz play host to an Alaves looking to move into a safer mid table position above the drop. The hosts sit 10th in the table and have beaten both Barcelona and Real Madrid this season despite being one of the most toothless sides in the league. The visitors have potential to climb up the table, in Lucas Perez and Joselu they contain proven goalscorers in recent topflight seasons, they are the more reliable punt for this match and yet they come in as intriguing outsiders. To my surprise and interest having only scored 12 goals all season, Cadiz are favourites so I will be getting on side with the visitors.
The hosts possess a relegation standard attack with a top half defence, the visitors boast a lower mid table attack with a mid table defence. It is evenly matched. Cadiz have underperformed compared to their expected goals figures this season and saying that with them sat in 10th place is high praise of the job Alvaro Cervera has done so far this campaign. They have scored 12 from chances equating to 14.8 expected goals, and underperformance but they rank 19th for both metrics. Conceding 21 times from 19.4 expected goals, a little unlucky but not unsustainably, with the sixth best expected goals against numbers in the division.
Alaves have suffered a large underperformance in front of goal, converting just 15 times from chances equating to 20.6 expected goals. They are head and shoulders the better attacking side. Also put in a good display to see themselves unlucky 2-1 losers against the league leaders Atletico Madrid last time out. They have been fortunate though it must be said in their own third, conceding 20 goals, one less then Cadiz, but from 24.7 expected goals against, far more than their opponents. That overperformance is not sustainable, an improvement is needed or we may seem them sucked into the dog fight.
Unders is tempting but far too short to find any value for me.
- Cadiz have scored in four of 10.
- Cadiz have conceded in eight of 10.
- Cadiz have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Cadiz have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
- Alaves have scored in seven of 10.
- Alaves have conceded in eight of 10.
- Alaves have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Alaves have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
Alaves are far too big of a price for me, none of Cadiz’s data convinces me that they should be favourites coming into this. The visitors have bags of topflight experience and are a value punt, you can get insurance and still odds against in the draw no bet market.