Dortmund v Schalke Betting Tip
Dortmund come into this game with struggling Schalke knowing a win is a must to keep the pressure on their Bavarian rivals and I expect them to do so while increasing their impressive goal tally for the season.
Free Scoring Dortmund
With four games to go, Dortmund are the Bundesliga’s second top goalscorers, with an impressive 72 goals. 65% (47) of those goals have come at home, with their record at the Westfalenstadion standing at 13 wins and 2 draws. They come into this off the back of hitting Freiburg for four goals away from home and they average two goals per home game themselves, while also conceding in 80% of their home games, meaning BTTS is quite likely, O2.5 is exceedingly likely, which is what makes following Dortmund on the overs a profitable venture.
Jadon Sancho has exploded onto the scene for Dortmund this season, bagging 11 goals, 8 of which have been at home. He is fresh off another goalscoring display last time out and you can expect his confidence to continue flowing as he returns to his favoured patch to face weaker opposition. Schalke have struggled defending the channels all season and you would expect Dortmund to exploit this by allowing Sancho a lot of possession in 1v1 situations whenever possible.
Struggling Schalke
Gazprom’s favourite side have had a tremendously disappointing season following some good investment during the summer break. They have a six-point cushion from the relegation zone with four games to go but will still be looking awkwardly over their shoulders if results go a certain way this weekend.
They travel to Dortmund in the midst of a two-game undefeated streak away from home, but their last match saw them crumble at home to Hoffenheim, shipping five in a crushing defeat. Their away games can be slow burners, with 8 of their away fixtures level at the break including six 0-0 scorelines at the interval. However, they do average 2.8 goals per game in the Bundesliga and they have seen O3.5 eight times this season so they do fit into the narrative of bringing goals to the table, especially against a side like Dortmund who have a tendency for switching off in short spells.
Schalke’s top scorer on the season is Daniel Caligiuri, a 31-year-old midfielder with five league goals. That should tell you all you need to know about what has transpired while trying to juggle European and league commitments.
Borussia Dortmund - Schalke betting tip
As I have been preaching throughout the preview, there is value to be found in backing on Dortmund at home with plenty of goals. BTTS has become far too skinny in their fixtures because of is regularity but with Schalke bringing just one goal to the table and Dortmund outperforming their home xG by a solitary goal, the bet I like is Dortmund & O3.5 goals at 17/10 in the game.
