Backing miserly Atletico can still be profitable

Opposites collide at the Wanda Metropolitano as Atletico Madrid look to extend a glorious home record against a Valencia side who are the most in form team in La Liga right now.

When you think of opposites attracting, this match couldn’t ring truer. Atletico, have lost one competitive fixture at the stadium this season, a 3-1 defeat to neighbours Real Madrid in February. That aside it has been 18W 3D with 16 clean sheets including their last five home games in a row. That means only six sides have managed to score there all season and only Girona, Real Madrid and Bilbao have managed to find the net more than once.

This imperious home form is much to do with their position behind Barcelona in the table and with only three of their last ten games decided by a single goal, if they do poke their noses in front early, it is usually one-way traffic from then on.

Antoine Greizmann has come back into some form for Diego Simeone’s charges, scoring in their last two home games, taking his tally to 14 La Liga goals for the season. Griezmann is a player who tends to score in 5/6 game spells during his career so I would take strong consideration him scoring again in this one. One of my staple bets in Atletico games is Griezmann & 1-0. Usually getting great double-digit odds and coming in with surprising regularity in the last two seasons.

While Atleti have long been proud of their miserly defence, Valencia are a team that thrives on chaos, excitement and late goals. Both teams have scored in seven of their last nine away games. They have only one defeat in those last nine games.

Over the course of the season, they have had O2.5 in 6/16 away games and 11/33 games overall which leaves them 19 out of 20 teams in La Liga. The team beneath them? You guessed it, Atletico. They have seen just 7/33 games with O2.5 goals scored.

The other telling stat involving these teams is that neither has lost a game in which they were winning at half-time, so whoever can strike first is most likely to be the victor. Conversely, they have both only overturned one half time deficit each throughout the season. In terms of a key player for Valencia, Goncalo Guedes has been in sparkling form scoring five in his last four games including a double last time out in the Europa League.

Atletico Madrid - Valencia Betting Tip

I would love to put up Griezmann and 1-0 but I feel that is a very specific bet and there is value across some of the trends that have been highlighted. Atletico & U2.5 is 13/5 and Atletico to win to Nil is 15/8. If you fancy the BTTS trend of Valencia to continue you can get 7/2 about that and an Atletico win.

It is hard to see Atleti letting this great home record slip despite the superb form of Valencia. With their progression to the Europa League semi-final this also opens another avenue for Qualification to the Champions League which they might view as more plausible given their run in, so I am going to plump for Atletico and U2.5 at 13/5 and hedge my bets on the trends.

Like post if you agree with Robbie's Tips

How did you bet? Share your thoughts here.

More recent betting tips

Bet closesTipsterEventBetOddsResult
4 Jul
12:30
Norwich City vs. Brighton and Hove Albion
English Premier League
Bet: Brighton and Hove Albion to Win
 
4 Jul
17:30
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Arsenal
English Premier League
Bet: Wolverhampton Wanderers Draw No Bet + Under 4.5 goals
 
5 Jul
16:30
Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
English Premier League
Bet: Liverpool to Win + Aston Villa to Score Under 1.5 goals
 
5 Jul
20:45
Napoli vs Roma
Italian Serie A
Bet: Napoli to win
 
7 Jul
18:30
Lecce vs Lazio
Italian Serie A
Bet: Lazio to win
 
8 Jul
20:45
Atalanta vs Sampdoria
Italian Serie A
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
 

More news and promotions

£30 in Premier League Free Bets with Betway

English Premier League 15 June 2020

Betway are our Premier League bookmaker of choice and they're offering you the chance to claim a world class welcome bonus for everyone's favourite league! Read more

Exclusive La Liga sign up offer for BetBlazers!

Spanish La Liga 8 June 2020

Claim an exclusive 22Bet bonus for La Liga and other football betting only with BetBlazers. Read more

Triple your money betting on Serie A with 888sport!

Italian Serie A 7 June 2020

888sport offer some of the best Serie A odds and Serie A betting markets in the world today! Make 888sport your Serie A betting site with this great welcome offer today! Read more

£100 in Free Bets for the Bundesliga Kick Off!

German Bundesliga 11 May 2020

bet365 are one of the biggest and most popular betting sites in the world and for good reason. It's no surprise that they should be first choice if you love the Bundesliga! Read more

Triple your money when you bet on the Champions League!

Champions League 10 March 2020

Betway are our new betting site of choice when it comes to finding the best sports betting package for the UEFA Champions League! Read more