Simeone's title charge to roll on
Two of the most defensively sound teams in La Liga face off this Wednesday evening, with Diego Simeone welcoming Jose Bordalas’ Getafe to the Wanda Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid top the Spanish topflight and look to be building a strong title case, in the absence of Real Madrid and Barcelona dominance. The relentless solidity of Simeone’s side has continued once more this term, the hosts have only conceded five times in 13 league games, despite losing to Real in the derby recently, the Mattress Makers are slowly making their way towards the favourites tag. Atleti are highly fancied to take all three points in this one, add on a good defensive display to enhance the value.
Process
The hosts are running a lot hot particularly in defence, but that is not too much of a surprise given the immense quality of Jan Oblak between the sticks. They have conceded just five from 12.1 expected goals, so expect them to concede a little more often should that process not improve. But with the style of play they adopt, it is not a shocking overperformance. Atleti have overperformed in front of goal also, with Marcos Llorente one of the breakout attacking players in the side. Scoring 26 from 21.9 expected goals, Getafe may look to give the Mattress Makers a taste of their own medicine.
Getafe have not lived up to their performances of last season, when they finished eighth, inside the league’s top eight for the third consecutive season. They sit 12 but rank 14th for expected goals, compared to Atletico in sixth, and their underlying data does not suggest they should expect a turnaround anytime soon. Scoring 12 from 13 expected goals and conceding 15 from 17.2, it is a tough ask for them to halt the hosts.
Goals?
Not for me. The recent form demonstrates how often an unders punt has come in when following Atletico and Getafe.
- Atleti have scored in eight of 10.
- Atleti have conceded in three of 10.
- Atleti have seen both teams score in two of 10.
- Atleti have seen over 2.5 goals in two of 10.
- Getafe have scored in six of 10.
- Getafe have conceded in eight of 10.
- Getafe have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Getafe have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
Still being a little cautious as we build towards the weekend, I have found a Atletico and unders selection that presents a little value. They should get the job done in their usual efficient manner.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Atletico stay top as Luis Suarez grabbed the only goal of the game. 1-0.