Sunday evening entertainment in the capital
Atletico Madrid take on Barcelona on Sunday evening, finishing off a stellar line-up of European action this weekend.
The Mattress Makers are not threatening to join the La Liga title race this season, with Barca and Real Madrid steaming away at the top end.
They are sat in fourth, with Real Sociedad in third, and the campaign will be a case of ensuring a top four finish is achieved without too much fuss.
Diego Simeone does appear to be approaching a crossroads in the dugout at Estadio Metropolitano.
Barca are favourites for the encounter at just above evens, with clubs still acclimatising back into league action, or the visitors may have been fancied more by the market.
Mario Hermoso and Jordi Alba are suspended for the encounter, but there should still be some fiery characters in the respective backlines for the occasion.
Process
Jan Oblak is continuing to defy the data, the world class Slovenian goalkeeper has helped the Mattress Makers overperform significantly in the last few seasons, in 2022/23 Atleti have conceded only 14 from 20.5 expected goals (xG) against.
Often, I would be saying that that number could regress to the mean and lead to some more porous defensive displays from the hosts, but Oblak has proven over a long period of time now that they can sustain an overperformance like that with him between the sticks.
Barca have been the best attacking team in the division according to xGF, creating chances at an incredible 2.77 xGF per game, Xavi really has put together an intimidating attacking unit.
The Catalan Giants have also conceded just six goals from 15 league outings, overperforming massively, but with an exceptional defensive process of just 0.83 xGA per match, one that will keep them in the title race right up until the final few weeks of the season, if they do not win it before then.
Goals?
My angle into this fixture, Atleti are slowly becoming more exciting to watch and they will back themselves to trouble Barca on their home patch.
Atleti have scored in nine of ten.
Atleti have conceded in eight of ten.
Atleti have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
Atleti have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Barca have scored in nine of ten.
Barca have conceded in six of ten.
Barca have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Barca have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Barca, a poor week, we go again.