Can Alaves build on Atleti victory?

Usual mid table fodder Athletic Bilbao welcome Alaves to San Mames in Friday evening’s La Liga action with the visitors looking to build on their surprise victory over Atletico Madrid last time out. Bilbao have made a strong start to the season with just one loss from their opening six to newly promoted Rayo Vallecano, Alaves presents a good opportunity to get back to winning ways after a three game winless run. The hosts are very short to win the game outright considering this is a mid table side hosting a relegation battling one but also Alaves’ impressive display against Atleti.

Background

Bilbao have scored more than one goal in just one of their opening seven games and Alaves have not in any of their six league matches. Therefore, despite both sides probably being due a free scoring outing, you cannot ignore the recent form and the value in the unders market is appealing given the club’s fortunes in the early exchanges of the campaign.

Process

In terms of expected goals (xG) Bilbao are decent going forward averaging 1.62 xGF and relatively solid at the back conceding 1.2 xGA per game, a positive differential that the visitors cannot boast. Alaves have produced 0.85 xGF per game and are offering 1.65 xGA, it is clear who has the better process.

Goals?

• Bilbao have scored in five of seven.
• Bilbao have conceded in three of seven.
• Bilbao have seen both teams score in three of seven.
• Bilbao have seen over 2.5 goals in one of seven.
• Alaves have scored in two of six.
• Alaves have conceded in five of six.
• Alaves have seen both teams score in one of six.
• Alaves have seen over 2.5 goals in two of six.

A double is my preferred selection, getting on the trend of Alaves struggling to threaten the opposition goal particularly with Bilbao’s respectable defensive process. There is no standout goalscorer for either side and the away team would definitely be content with only a draw.

Bilbao may throw caution to the wind in awareness of the poor frontline of Alaves, however it was a deserved win over the Mattress Makers and that could breathe confidence into visitors.

Athletic Bilbao - Alaves Betting Tip

Under 2.5 goals + Alaves to Score Under 1.5 goals with bet365 at odds of 18/25 or 1.72.

Bet Under 2.5 goals + Alaves to Score Under 1.5 goals on Bet365