The Goddess to return with a bang
Atalanta host Sassuolo in arguably the pick of the Serie A curtain raisers, Gian Piero Gasperini’s men endured a hesitant start to the campaign but were building momentum before the break and I expect them to continue to do in this fixture, hosting Roberto De Zerbi’s men, who sit fourth but are one of the biggest overperformers in the league when you look at the underlying data. For that reason the Goddess come in as overwhelming favourites at a very short price looking at the league table alone, however though they are a little short are still the value play given their recent form.
Process
The hosts have overperformed in offense but underachieved in defence, producing some of the better numbers for their rearguard action in the division, such that was not the case and held them back last term. They have scored 28 goals from 24.2 expected goals and conceded 20 from just 15.9, if they can continue the impressive defensive process, much improved by the summer addition of Cristian Romero, then qualifying for the Champions League for a third straight season will be no issue.
Sassuolo are lucky to have maintained such a high league position and it is likely they will fall away into a lower top half finish if they do not improve their process. They have scored 26 goals from chances equating to 19.8 expected goals and conceded 17 times to chances equating to 21.6. Not a sustainable overperformance across a whole season. They have an exciting attacking contingent with a nice blend of youth and experience but compared to the talent at Gasperini’s disposal, should they turn up, the Black and Greens will not have the answer.
Goals?
A considerable angle, with three of Atalanta’s last four bringing over 2.5 goals however they are the only three to do so in their last 10. Also just four in 10 for the visitors, therefore it does not seem like a reliable punt also given that this is their first game back after the break.
- Atalanta have scored in eight of 10.
- Atalanta have conceded in six of 10.
- Atalanta have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Atalanta have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Sassuolo have scored in seven of 10.
- Sassuolo have conceded in five of 10.
- Sassuolo have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Sassuolo have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
Atalanta are the team to get behind here, but they are short with the market so use the asian handicap to increase value, with insurance that your stake will be returned should they win by just the one goal.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
We end the week off with a comfortable win, rampant Atalanta gave Sassuolo a huge reality check. 5-1.