Morning Glory in the A-League
The A-league is now into match day 5 and I feel it's time for me to step in and make my first betting tip with bottom placed Wellington taking on league leaders Perth Glory. The match will be played at 6 AM for those of us in the UK.
Wellington Phoenix
- Wellington finished second from last last season and I can't see them doing much better here. Last season it was their defence that was their weakest link, conceding an average of 2.04 goals per game. This season it's first and foremost the attack which has underperformed, scoring only three goals in five games, which are really low stats for the A-league. They did well to win their first game 2-1 against the Jets, in a match where they were the clear underdogs, although it has to be said that the final result flattered their performance. They then drew against Brisbane and lost the following three matches. Over the weekend they actually performed quite well against Adelaide, although they lost 1-3, a result I don't think was that fair. All in all, I do not rate this team and I can't see them coming above anyone apart from Central Coast this season.
- Form: LLLDD
Perth Glory
- Perth Glory have without a doubt been the season's stand out team. Last season they finished eighth and missed the playoffs, but they have improved this season. The team started with a draw at home against the Wanderers, but they have since won four games in a row. Five games doesn't mean that much but I think that Perth still deserve their points having played some nice football, even if they rode their luck this weekend when they beat Central Coast 3-2 with only three shots on goal. You can find some exciting players in the squad with the likes of Christopher Oikonomidis who played in the Serie B a few years ago. Now a long trip to Perth awaits them, but I believe Perth will really fancy their chances this Sunday.
- Form: WWWWD
Betting tip
I don't usually read that much into league positions after only five games, but I think in this case it is a reasonable indication of how the match will pan out. My bet is based not just on the league positions but also all the underlying statistics. Another reason for this bet is the fact that Betfair's odds to back Perth stick out from the market average. In my book, Perth Glory have a 60% chance of a win if we exclude a draw. I think therefore there is real value in odds of 3/4 on a Perth Glory draw no bet.
I recommend betting on Perth Glory DNB at odds of 3/4 with Betfair
