Which Serie A newcomer can pull away?
It is the battle of the newly promoted sides this Saturday afternoon at Stadio Alberto Picco as both Spezia and Benevento look to pull clear of the relegation zone. Each team is sat five points above the drop zone on 25 points having play two games more than Torino in 18th, the visitors would take a point to stop the flow of back to back losses without scoring, the wind is more in the sails of Spezia who have shown some good form in both of their last two home outings. The Little Eagles are rightful favourites at a nice odds against price.
Process
Benevento’s decline is very concerning and is a run that sees me look to oppose them quite consistently until they stop the rot, they have won just once in 11 and not scored in their last three, something needs to change. Cagliari have won two on the bounce and moved out of the relegation zone having recently made a change in the dugout, maybe a similar impact is needed. The Sorcerers rank 17th or 18th for goals scored, expected goals scored, goals against and expected goals against, so ultimately it is not a surprise to see them falling towards the dog fight. They have underperformed slightly in defence it should be noted, conceding 47 from 43.5 expected, a little unlucky. Building from the back looks the best way to go as they do not create many chances nor obtain any devastating finishers, they are in trouble.
Spezia have been great fun this season, certainly the most refreshing newly promoted side that have genuinely contributed to the neutral experience in what is an enthralling Serie A campaign. Vincenzo Italiano’s men have stuttered to pick up just one point in their last three games since beating, then table topping, AC Milan 2-0. They rank 13th for attacking process and 16th in defence, on the whole they should stay up from here. They too have underperformed at the back conceding 46 from 41.9 expected, a clean sheet could be around the corner. What better time than against toothless Benevento?
Goals?
The enormity and context of this fixture could lead to it being a more damp affair than on paper it shapes up to be, I will not be getting involved with a goals angle.
- Spezia have scored in six of 10.
- Spezia have conceded in seven of 10.
- Spezia have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Spezia have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
- Benevento have scored in six of 10.
- Benevento have conceded in six of 10.
- Benevento have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Benevento have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
Spezia have the upper hand and an extra day to prepare, they should capitalise.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Despite being comfortably the better team, Spezia were held to a 1-1 draw.