Spezia Milan has the licence to thrill
Serie A’s prime time serving this weekend could be a cracker, as table topping AC Milan travel to enterprising Spezia. Stefano Pioli’s men have caught the imagination of every club in Europe this season to be competing for the Scudetto as outsiders, a huge club that is finally heading in the right direction again. As for newly promoted Spezia, they had a tough start to the campaign but have acclimatised excellently and look every bit a side that will give themselves every chance of staying up. A 2-1 win at Sassuolo last time out helped their survival bid tenfold, they sit 16th.
Process
Milan rank third for expected points, still a decent return, a top four finish would have been deemed a successful season at the start of the campaign, their excellent form that has the, at the summit should not take away from that. They have scored 45 from 45.7 expected goals, the most expected goals for in the division, conceding just 23 from 28.3 expected, a large overperformance. They must tighten up at the back and take some of the weight off of Gianluigi Donnarumma’s shoulders if they are to sustain their push, ranking them eight for expected goals against.
Attack is the best form of defence for Spezia and their figures correspond to that, they place 12th for goals for with 28 from 25.3 expected, and 15th for goals against with 38 from 36 expected. It is hard to see what way they are trending however since the turn of the year the Little Eagles look a side on the up, they could pull away from the drop conversation comfortably.
Goals?
Definitely an angle, with both teams to score very tempting also. To keep a close game with goals on side I will be using an over 1.5 goals selection with an outright play.
- Spezia have scored in seven of 10.
- Spezia have conceded in nine of 10.
- Spezia have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Spezia have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
- Milan have scored in eight of 10.
- Milan have conceded in five of 10.
- Milan have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
Milan are heavy favourites with good reason, I was initially looking to use the Asian Handicap but with Spezia’s goalscoring form, getting both a 2-0 and 2-1 win on side took priority.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
This season, blimey. Let’s hope for better fortunes tomorrow. 2-0 Spezia.