Canarini in a coal mine
Sampdoria will host Frosinone this Sunday at the Luigus Ferrars stadium. The market has them as clear favourites for this game. They took a battering from Napoli last weekend, but shouldn't detract from the fact that I Blucerchiati are a very good team away from home. Frosinone have had a surprise or two up their sleeve this season, such as their last game against Bologna, but beating Sampdoria at the Luigus Ferrars? Nah.
Quagliarella's record-equalling run of scoring in 11 matches in a row came to an end last weekend when they lost 3-0 to Napoli. Gli Azzurri away was just one step too far for this exciting Sampdoria team. There is however a big difference between playing Napoli away and meeting Frosinone at home. Sampdoria are one of the league's best teams at home and their points record is on the same level as Inter, Milan and Roma. 60% of Sampdoria's home games have ended in a win.
They've won their last four home games with a goal difference of 12-1!
Over the past four fixtures Sampdoria are the leagues most in-form team. If you look at the whole season, Sampdoria have scored 1.90 and conceded 0.80, stats worthy of a top team. They are over-performing according to expected goals, but that's what you get when you have real quality up front. Quagliarella has scored 16 goals this season, but Defrel, Caprari and Ramirez are all dangerous going forward. They also have quality in midfield with Ekdal, Praet and Linetty. Caprari is missing through injury but they have a fully fit squad otherwise.
- League Position: 6
As I mentioned earlier, Frosinone will most likely be playing in Serie B next season. Unfortunately they just don't have enough quality in their squad. They've pulled off a couple of shock results, but that's it. They currently sit second from bottom in Serie A, with only two wins. They have lost seven of their eleven games away from home with a goal difference of 10-21. Their main issue is not necessarily scoring but rather they let in far too many goals.
They have scored an average of 0.91 goals and conceded 1.91 per game away from home this season.
What makes it worse is that they have scored more goals than they should have according to expected goals. Frosinone have scored as many goals as Quagliarella has this season. They have a huge amount of injuries. In short - things don't look pretty.
- League Position: 19
These two teams are at polar ends of the Italian football hierarchy. Sampdoria have done better than expected this season and there is talk of them potentially qualifying for the Champions League. They are one of the league's best teams at home and enjoy quality throughout the squad. The Canaries lack quality and are in dark place at the moment.
That's reason enough to back Sampdoria -1 with Bethard at 29/20.