Top-flight knowhow to shine through
Salernitana’s difficult baptism into life in Serie A has persisted despite an improvement in performances in recent weeks. They host a Genoa side who have been free-scoring of late despite having some concerning underlying numbers. Mattia Destro has made an impressive start to the season and the Garnets will be keen to keep the former Italy international quiet on Saturday afternoon. After a harrowing first few matches of the season the hosts have shown signs of recovery with a draw and two one goal losses in recent weeks. The visitors come into the game without a win in their last three with an over 2.5 goals punt copping in all of their last five outings.
Background
Even though they rank second bottom on expected points the visitors will be full of confidence in front of goal albeit a little reliant on Mattia Destro and winning penalties in recent weeks. The Griffin come in as narrow favourites for this matchup but given their wavering progress and the hosts slight upturn in form the Asian Handicap looks the sensible option for a selection.
Genoa have been on the fortunate side of a couple of score draws in their last two, losing the expected goals (xG) battle in a 3-3 with Hellas Verona and a 2-2 with Bologna. Figures like that are the reason they are so low down in the xG standings but goals breathe confidence into a side and with Salernitana struggling for them, the visitors will definitely come in more optimistic about their chances of picking up three points.
The Garnets have underperformed significantly in front of goal, it is often hard to judge how big of a sample size you need to determine and unsustainable underperformance with xG but the hosts are conceding more often either down to poor goalkeeping or clinical finishing.
Market
Despite the difference in experience at the level Genoa are only slight favourites for this matchup. And in that, give us the chance to still get on a decent price by combining two outcomes of the match. In an evenly matched affair early on in the season, keeping as many scorelines onside can be handy and the selection for this game demonstrates that.
Therefore, I will be taking Genoa at zero on the Asian Handicap, our stake will be returned if the game ends in a draw and if the visitors win so do we. Experience at the level can count for a lot.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Salernitana arrive with a 1-0 win.