Schedule falls kinder for Napoli
Paulo Fonseca’s underperforming Roma side welcome under pressure Gennaro Gattuso’s Napoli to the Stadio Olimpico, as both sides push for a top four finish. The hosts were early season high flyers and despite their slide have still looked a much improved side this season, it would not be a surprise to see Roma prioritise their Thursday evening trip to Kiev to face Shakhtar Donetsk in the Europa League over this fixture, it has been some years since the club have had some European prominence. Napoli on the other hand travel to Turin to face Juventus on Wednesday, but in terms of air miles and preparation time the schedule certainly hampers Roma.
Process
Roma ranked second for both expected goals for and against, but they are being consistently trumped by sides with more elite finishers than them, and for that reason will probably narrowly miss out on Champions League qualification despite data wise looking solid this term. They have scored 51 from 53.3 expected and conceded 40 from 28.1, an incredible underperformance, the displays of Pau Lopez between the sticks have to be questioned.
Napoli are one of the overperformers going forward that are a thorn in the side of Roma. Gli Azzurri have slammed home 56 goals from 47.7 expected, an unsustainable process, but have been solid to concede 29 from 30.9. Kalidou Koulibaly at the centre of defence will be a big player in this match.
Goals?
Napoli convincingly won the reverse fixture however this one will not be as clear cut, they are very even with the odds but I see the schedule tipping the scales slightly in favour of the visitors.
- Roma have scored in seven of 10.
- Roma have conceded in five of 10.
- Roma have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Napoli have scored in nine of 10.
- Napoli have conceded in seven of 10.
- Napoli have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
In possibly the showpiece European affair of the weekend, Napoli are the play, they have quality all over the pitch and will be fired up by Gattuso who may have a top four or bust cloud hanging over him.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A Dries Mertens brace earned Gli Azzurri all three points. 0-2.