PSG will win but not how you expect it
PSG enter the Coupe de France final as overwhelming favourites against a Rennes side who overcame Lyon in the semis and could give the French giants a shock if they play to their full potential.
Rennes aiming for a shock
Sitting firmly in mid-table in Ligue 1 and winless in their last four, you’d imagine this is less than ideal preparation for the biggest game in years for “le rouge et noir”, but this side is built full of mercurial individual talent. Ismaila Sarr at 21 is one of the brightest prospects in the league and is likely to end up plying his trade at one of the top six in England next season. He has been giving full backs nightmares all season and if there is one place you can expose this Parisian side; it is through wing play. Hatem Ben Arfa is another who, from watching his season highlights, you would think his team should be top of the league and cruising, but such is the fickle nature of a lot of the squad, they blow very hot and cold.
Statistically, Rennes tend to score and concede with alarming frequency. Of their last 10 games, at least one of the teams has scored three goals seven times. This run includes a 3-1 home win against Arsenal followed by a 3-0 defeat at the Emirates, this is the perfect example of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the team. Their last ten games have seen 3W 3D 4L, BTTS in 7/10, O2.5 in 7/10 and O3.5 in 6/10. In the Coupe they have scored at least twice in their last four and another interesting stat, the first goal has been scored within the first 15 minutes in four of the last six meetings between the teams.
Can PSG win another double?
PSG brought the curtain down on an eighth league title in succession last weekend, a Kylian Mbappe hattrick and a 3-1 win over Monaco enough to cap another fine season for Thomas Tuchel’s evolving team. The biggest question mark over them is returning the intensity levels for a one-off cup final where the opposition have clearly been focusing on you for a month or so. As I have pointed out, Rennes have the ability to come out all guns blazing with that attacking talent and blow even PSG out of the water if they are not at it from the off.
Neymar, Cavani and Draxler will all return to the PSG squad for the show piece of French football and that extra firepower is no doubt key as to why they are such overwhelming favourites in a one of fixture. They have averaged 3.7 goals per game in the league this season but in their last four cup finals, all have ended U2.5 which does give some food for thought. All the stats show that this should be a high scoring final though and the prevalence for early goals in both teams has made me side with an interesting selection.
Rennes - PSG betting tip
This is predicated on Rennes having all their stars firing and catching PSG out early doors. I think that it is possible for them to get the first goal but ultimately succumb to the pressure and star power PSG possess in their team. With that in mind, I’m plumping for a decent priced 6/1 about PSG to come from behind and win. You could take shorter odds about a lesser bet but in a cup final you want a fun play and Rennes could be a quality underdog story.
