Underestimate Union at your peril
Julien Nagelsmann and Urs Fischer lock horns in the showpiece of the midweek Bundesliga action, very much the surprise package of the German topflight once again Union Berlin will rise to the challenge of RB Leipzig full of confidence unbeaten in their last six in the league. Both teams have seen plenty of goals in their matches of late however boast some of the best defensive data in the division, this one could go one of a few ways but with some quality entertainment firmly on the cards. There is value in the market on a goals based bet.
Process
The league table and expected goals standings suggest that this is a European qualification pushing side travelling to a title contender. Leipzig are the more impressive but I do not feel comfortable writing Union off at this point, proving their credibilities week in week out in only their second ever season in the Bundesliga. We have seen an underperformance in terms of expected goals from Leipzig who have scored just 28 goals, eighth most in the league, from chances equating to 31 expected goals. Proud owners of the best backline in the division ranking first with 14 goals against and just 14.4 expected goals, sustainably excellent. It is no wonder Dayot Upamecano and Lukas Klostermann have so many admirers.
Union have overperformed in attack and been a tad unlucky at the back. Scoring 32 from 24 expected is an unsustainable overperformance contrasted by conceding 20 from 17.6 expected, ranking second for the latter metric.
Goals?
Despite the impressive form of the respective defensive contingents, these two boast very potent attacks, goals is an angle.
- Leipzig have scored in nine of 10.
- Leipzig have conceded in five of 10.
- Leipzig have seen both teams score in five of 10.
- Leipzig have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
- Union have scored in 10 of 10.
- Union have conceded in eight of 10.
- Union have seen both teams score in eight of 10.
- Union have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
The market is providing plenty of value in both teams to score, with the recent data and matches plus the attacking nature of these two sides, for me BTTS is a great angle. Union definitely have the creative strength to trouble the hosts and have scored in every league game this term.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Union finally drew a blank, Emil Forsberg scored the only goal of the game, 1-0 Leipzig.