Bodö better than the table suggests
However enjoyable the international break was, nothing can really compare to club football. This weekend, the domestic leagues are back up and running and I have an early betting tip for the Norwegian League, Eliteserien on Sunday.
Ranheim
Ranheim have enjoyed such a fantastic season, I don't really know where to begin. The league's new boys, who were tipped by many to head straight back down, now lie in fifth place with five matches still to play. Ranheim, have without doubt been this Eliteserien season's big success story. They are a team that football fans will find it hard to dislike. The high-stake bettors on the hand who have lost their money thanks to the unexpected success of this Trondheim-based club will no doubt despise this team.
Now, all the risk-takers are riding high on self-confidence as they continue to bet big on Ranheim. But the professionals have continued to go against Ranheim and for good reason. Sound strange? Let me explain.
Ranheim simply are not as good as the table suggests. Had the outcome of every match gone the way the market predicted, Ranheim would be in the relegation zone. I agree with the market that Ranheim are one of the worst teams in the league but I believe that Start and Sandefjord are even worse. This makes, in my eyes, Ranheim the third worst team in the league.
Ranheim are Norway's equivalent to Burnley and for those of you who thought that Burnley were the Premier League's seventh best team last season, you can stop reading my betting tips. The table is not definitive and Ranheim is not Norway's fifth best team.
Form: LWLDL
Home form: 7-3-2, 24 points
Bodö/Glimt
Bodö/Glimt are in terrible form, with three losses on the trot and four games without a win. It should be said that Bodö's defeats to Molde and Haugesund were unfair. In terms of their performances they have been better than the results would suggest and now Bodö will get a well-needed rest. Bodö are newcomers to the Eliteserien but after they ran away with the OBOS-league last season they were expected to perform much better than their opponents this weekend as well as newcomers Ranheim. Although the table suggests otherwise, I believe that Bodö are a better team than Ranheim, both on paper and from the evidence of how they have performed this season. In my opinion, Bodö should not have anything to do with a relegation battle and I think that the their last matches reflect this quite well. Matches in which they played well but were unlucky. With five fixtures left it's time for Northeners to stop just 'playing well' and start winning matches. Even though they are away, I fancy Bodö this weekend.
Form: LLLDW
Home form: 2-5-5, 11 points
Betting tips
As mentioned above, the table does not reflect how good or bad these teams are in reality. In my opinion, Bodö are the much better team and if they were in reverse league positions it would be a much more fair reflection of how good they are. Going on their performances this season and the quality of their squads, I have Bodö as clear favourites away at Ranheim.
There is one more factor that makes me so certain about this bet. Ranheim have nothing to play for but Bodö/Glimt have everything to play for. Even if it is 2018, it is the table and their form (results) that set the opening odds. The market is smart, but if we scratch under the surface we can find some value in Bodö/Glimt, the team that should be the market's favourite on Sunday. If we take away a draw as an outcome then we have over a 50% chance of winning and any odds offering double your money on Bodö DNB is worth it in my book. I snapped up the odds early when they were 29/25 and you can still get them at 27/25 with some Asian bookmakers. Unibet are currently offering the best odds at 28/25 on Bodö +0 which is a bet I would recommend.
I recommend betting on Bodö Asian handicap +0 (money back if it is a draw) at odds of 28/25 with Unibet.
