Big value in backing data darlings Villarreal
Dipping into the weekend markets at this point in the week, Monday evening is the time of writing, often presents far better value than the day before or of the fixture. With that in mind let’s head to La Liga’s Saturday evening action with Osasuna taking on Villarreal. The hosts have struggled so far this season having impressed last term, their first since promotion from the second tier. With second season syndrome and one of the best Villarreal sides we have seen in years coming to town there is only one winner for me and it is the visitors. You can find them at odds against with the vast majority of bookmakers right now and that is far too good for me to refuse.
Process
The Yellow Submarine’s underlying numbers have been excellent this season, seeing them as high as second in the expected goals table compared to fourth in La Liga. They sit fifth for both expected goals for and expected goals against, with an alarming underperformance in front of goal that I could see being rectified in the coming weeks, facing off with rock bottom Osasuna presents just that opportunity. Unai Emery’s men have scored just 16 goals from chances equating to 20.7 expected goals, if they can continue to create chances at that rate, and they will have the opportunity to on Saturday evening, they should take all three points.
Los Rojillos are trending slightly better than their league position suggests, sat in 18th in the expected goals table, they too have not converted as many chances as the data indicates. Scoring just 10 from 14.6 expected goals, still not mesmerising attacking figures but a great deal stronger than the team propping up the division.
Goals?
Osasuna will look to contain a Villarreal side brimming with silky ball players very astute at dictating play and picking holes in the defensive unit. If they break the deadlock early it could be a rout but should the hosts gain a foothold then it could turn out to be a more dull affair.
- Osasuna have scored in five of 10.
- Osasuna have conceded in seven of 10.
- Osasuna have seen both teams score in four of 10.
- Osasuna have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Villarreal have scored in nine of 10.
- Villarreal have conceded in six of 10.
- Villarreal have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Villarreal have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
It is a market play to an extent, but Villarreal are trending as title contenders so would be well worth backing here at a shorter price anyway. The data suggests they pose great value.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Comfortable win, 2-0 up by half time, cruised to take it 3-1.